提出SSH-Net模型,精准预测多竞争风险下的故障时间分布。
SSH-Net: A Deep Neural Network for Predicting Failure Time Distribution Functions under Competing Risks with Application to GPU Data
- 按数据结构设计分段神经网络,分组处理不同特征影响
- 在模拟与显卡数据上,Brier分数、AUC和RMSE均优于传统方法
- 适合复杂系统故障预测,尤其适用于多层级物理结构
竞争风险在工程领域普遍存在,复杂应用场景给生存数据分析带来挑战。近年来,深度神经网络因其灵活性和强学习能力受到关注,但其结构复杂性导致超参数调优困难。当系统具有多层次物理结构时,将所有层次合并为单一输入组可能丢失关键信息。为此,本文提出结构化分段危险率深度神经网络(SSH-Net),将网络结构与数据层级对应,通过独立子网络分别建模不同协变量对故障预测的影响。基于特定原因的竞争风险框架构建,输出特定原因的危险函数,并采用惩罚对数似然作为损失函数。通过模拟研究验证了预测精度,评估指标包括Brier评分、受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)以及特定原因累积发病函数的均方根误差(RMSE)。进一步在Titan GPU故障时间数据上展示了模型预测故障时间分布函数的能力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Competing risks are commonly observed in engineering fields and can bring challenges to time-to-event data modeling when the application scenarios are complicated. Recently, deep neural networks have received great attention for prediction with competing risks, due to their flexibility and high learning capability. However, the complexity of neural network structure brings extra difficulty in hyperparameter tuning based on different data inputs. Additionally, when an engineered system has complex physical structures with multiple hierarchical levels, treating all structural levels as a single group of inputs may fail to capture critical information. To address the issues, we propose a Structured Segmented Hazard Deep Neural Network (SSH-Net) for failure time prediction under cause-specific competing risks framework. Our approach associates neural network structure with data structures, and allows different covariate groups to impact the failure prediction through separate sub-networks. The neural network is constructed based on a cause-specific competing risks model. The SSH-Net outputs cause-specific hazard functions, and utilizes the penalized log-likelihood as the loss function. The prediction accuracy of SSH-Net is validated through simulation studies by evaluating the Brier score, the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), and the root mean square error (RMSE) of the predicted cause-specific cumulative incident function. We further demonstrate the model's ability to predict failure time distribution functions using the Titan GPU failure time data.
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