arXiv:2606.20526cs.AI2026-06

让神经概率逻辑程序支持因果反事实推理,提升可解释性与准确性。

DeepSWIP: Quotient-WMC Counterfactuals for Neural Probabilistic Logic Programs

论文配图:DeepSWIP: Quotient-WMC Counterfactuals for Neural Probabilistic Logic Programs
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于单世界干预程序(SWIP)构建反事实推理框架,融合神经感知与逻辑规则。
  • 在MPI3D上验证12,000次查询,推理速度提升2.14倍,且结果更稳定。
  • 适用于需要因果解释的神经符号系统,尤其适合模型校准敏感场景。

神经符号系统如DeepProbLog结合了神经感知与概率逻辑,但传统推理仅具关联性。反事实推理需因果语义支持干预与证据。本文提出DeepSWIP,为DeepProbLog程序设计单世界反事实语义。通过神经实例化,将固定上下文的神经谓词转化为普通ProbLog选择,应用单世界干预程序(SWIP),并基于单一转换后的程序进行加权模型计数(WMC)计算反事实。在有限接地和唯一支撑模型假设下,DeepSWIP相对于学习到的材料化因果模型是精确的。标准商式WMC形式的ProbLog条件能识别活跃的神经概率,解释干预清洗、校准敏感性及罕见证据不稳定性。在MPI3D上的实验表明,该方法在12,000次查询中表现符合预期,推理速度提升2.14倍,避免了双生模型(Twin)的内生冗余。SUMO HOV实验显示,神经校准退化会误导插件估计,而正确作用域的随机策略AIPW估计器可消除大部分一阶偏差,适用于总体均值与处理效应估计。代码已开源。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Neurosymbolic systems such as DeepProbLog combine neural perception with probabilistic logic, but standard inference is associational. Counterfactual reasoning additionally requires a causal semantics for interventions and evidence. We introduce DeepSWIP, a single-world counterfactual semantics for DeepProbLog programs. Using neural materialization, we reduce fixed-context neural predicates to ordinary ProbLog choices, apply Single World Intervention Programs (SWIPs), and compute counterfactuals by weighted model counting (WMC) over a single transformed program. Under finite grounding and unique-supported-model assumptions, DeepSWIP is exact relative to the learned materialized FCM. The standard quotient-WMC form of ProbLog conditionals identifies active neural probabilities and explains intervention cleaning, calibration sensitivity, and rare-evidence instability. Experiments on MPI3D confirm the transformation against a DeepTwin construction against 12,000 queries, as predicted and a 2.14$\times$ inference speedup from avoiding the Twin's endogenous duplication. A SUMO HOV experiment shows that neural calibration degradation biases plug-in estimates, while a correctly scoped randomized-policy AIPW estimator removes most first-order bias for population mean and ATE estimands. Code is at https://github.com/saibib/deep_SWIP.

因果推理神经符号反事实概率逻辑

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