arXiv:2606.20611cs.CYcs.LG2026-06

从单次测验数据推断学习者技能习得路径,无需时间信息。

Estimating Learners' Skill Acquisition Without Temporal Information

论文配图:Estimating Learners' Skill Acquisition Without Temporal Information
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 利用技能集合的包含关系构建伪时间顺序,推断学习进展
  • 在真实和合成数据集上优于基线方法,尤其在技能空间大时优势明显
  • 适合数据稀疏或无时间戳的教育场景,支持自适应教学

教育数据挖掘中,知识追踪研究多聚焦于预测学习者的未来知识状态以支持自适应教学。然而,在许多真实教育场景中,学习数据仅以单次评估形式存在,缺乏时间信息,导致基于时序的方法难以应用。本文提出一种新框架,仅使用快照数据预测未来的技能习得。具体而言,我们针对认知诊断模型(CDMs)估计的技能掌握模式,预测下一个将被掌握的技能。由于缺乏时间信息,我们利用学习者技能集合间的包含关系,构建伪时间排序,将技能集扩展视为学习进展的代理。为高效逼近未观测的习得路径,引入神经模型,通过期望技能增量捕捉潜在的技能习得动态。在合成与真实数据集上的实验表明,该方法持续优于基线,尤其在技能空间较大时表现突出。结果表明,仅凭快照数据即可推断出有意义的技能习得模式,为数据受限的教育环境提供实用的自适应学习支持框架。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Recent research in educational data mining, especially knowledge tracing, has focused on predicting learners' future knowledge states to support adaptive instruction. However, in many real-world educational settings, learning data are often available only as single-time-point assessments without temporal information, making existing time-series-based approaches difficult to apply. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for predicting future skill acquisition using only snapshot data. Specifically, we address the problem of predicting the next skill to be acquired from skill mastery patterns estimated by cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs). In the absence of temporal information, we exploit inclusion relations among learners' skill sets to induce a pseudo-temporal ordering, interpreting expanding skill sets as a proxy for learning progression. To efficiently approximate unobserved acquisition paths, we introduce a neural model that captures latent skill acquisition dynamics through expected skill increments. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed method consistently outperforms baseline approaches, with particularly strong advantages as the skill space becomes larger. These results indicate that meaningful skill acquisition patterns can be inferred from snapshot data alone, providing a practical framework for adaptive learning support in data-constrained educational environments.

知识追踪技能预测快照数据自适应学习

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