arXiv:2606.20820cs.LG2026-06

用可验证方法高效评估大模型性能,减少样本量且保证结果可信。

CELEUS: Certifiable and Efficient LLM Evaluation via E-Processes

论文配图:CELEUS: Certifiable and Efficient LLM Evaluation via E-Processes
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于E过程构建随时有效的置信区间,避免传统方法的统计失效问题。
  • 结合不确定性采样与代理近似,减少54%-62%评估样本量。
  • 适合需要高可信度评估的大模型研发团队或评测机构使用。

评估分数能否真实反映大模型在现实中的表现?可验证评估通过提供置信保证来回答此问题。现有方法通过逐次选取评估样本并持续更新置信区间(如95%覆盖概率),直到满足精度要求。但这些方法并非普遍具备随时有效性:在反复更新和决定停止时,宣称的覆盖概率可能失效,导致理论与实践脱节。本文提出Celeus,一种可验证且高效的大型语言模型评估框架,利用E过程构建随时有效的置信区间。具体而言,我们设计了融合两项机制的信号:(i) 基于不确定性的采样以选择信息量高的样本;(ii) 对未评估样本采用代理辅助近似。我们证明此类信号在给定历史条件下对评估得分保持无偏,从而支持统计上严谨的任意时刻有效e-过程置信区间。更重要的是,这两项机制降低了估计方差,显著减少达到目标精度所需的样本数。我们还证明,Celeus获得的置信区间可接近参数速率收缩(仅含对数因子),并分析了最优采样规则,启发了实际使用的不确定性引导采样策略。实验表明,Celeus在保持任意时刻有效覆盖的前提下,比基线方法少使用54%-62%的评估样本。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Can we trust evaluation scores to capture an LLM's true real-world performance? Certifiable evaluation answers this question by providing guarantee for LLM evaluation. In particular, existing methods sequentially curate evaluation samples and keep updating confidence intervals (CIs) that cover the true performance with high probability (e.g., 95%) until some conditions are satisfied, e.g., the CI width reaches a target precision. However, existing methods are not generally anytime-valid: the claimed coverage (e.g., 95%) may fail when CIs are repeatedly updated and used to decide when to stop, leaving a gap between theoretical rigor and practice. This paper bridges this gap by proposing Celeus, a Certifiable framework for Efficient LLM evaluation, which leverages E-processes to build anytime-valid CIs. Concretely, we propose signals that combine two ingredients: (i) Uncertainty-guided sampling to select informative samples for evaluation, and (ii) Surrogate-assisted approximations for unevaluated samples. We prove that such signals remain unbiased for the evaluation score conditional on the past, enabling statistically-grounded and anytime-valid $e$-process CIs. More importantly, the two ingredients reduce estimation variance and help reach the target precision with fewer evaluated samples. We also prove that CIs obtained by Celeus can shrink at a near-parametric rate up to logarithmic factors and analyze the oracle variance-optimal sampling rule that motivates the empirical uncertainty-guided one. Experiments show that Celeus reaches the target precision using 54-62% fewer evaluated samples than baselines, while preserving anytime-valid coverage.

大模型评估置信区间可验证性E过程

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