arXiv:2606.21022cs.LGcs.AI2026-06

区分出行起点终点的活跃状态与流量大小,提升动态稀疏交通需求预测精度

Structure-Aware Graph Multi-Task Learning for Dynamic Sparse OD Demand Prediction

论文配图:Structure-Aware Graph Multi-Task Learning for Dynamic Sparse OD Demand Prediction
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将出行预测拆分为区域活跃度、连接状态和流量强度三任务联合建模
  • 在三个城市数据集上相比顶尖方法平均提升12.3%的预测准确率
  • 适合需要高鲁棒性交通流量预测的智慧交通系统研发者

起止点(OD)需求预测是智能交通系统的基础,但现实中的OD流常呈现动态稀疏、长尾分布及异质性零流量特征。这使得难以区分某条OD连接是否活跃,以及激活后的流量大小。现有方法多将OD预测视为单一流量回归任务,难以建模低频、间歇性及长尾的OD交互。为此,我们提出结构感知图多任务学习框架SAGMTL,将OD预测分解为结构状态建模与流量强度估计两部分,在统一框架中联合学习区域活跃状态、OD连接活跃性与边级流量强度。具体地,节点-边协同表示模块通过交互式更新捕捉区域语义、时序动态与空间先验,生成面向动态OD交互的结构感知表示。基于此表示,SAGMTL联合建模稳定需求模式与短期波动。多约束目标进一步增强对稀疏性的感知与结构一致性。在北京、成都、南京三个真实城市出行数据集上的实验表明,SAGMTL显著优于当前最优基线。进一步分析显示,显式建模区域活跃度、连接状态与流量强度可提升动态稀疏OD需求预测的鲁棒性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Origin-Destination (OD) demand prediction is fundamental to intelligent transportation systems, yet real-world OD flows are often dynamically sparse, long-tailed, and characterized by heterogeneous zero-flow patterns. These properties make it difficult to distinguish whether an OD connection is active from how much demand it generates once activated. Many existing methods primarily treat OD prediction as a single flow regression task, which limits their ability to model low-frequency, intermittent, and long-tailed OD interactions. To address these challenges, we propose SAGMTL, a Structure-Aware Graph Multi-Task Learning framework for dynamic sparse OD demand prediction. SAGMTL decomposes OD prediction into structural state modeling and flow intensity estimation, jointly learning regional activity states, OD connection activity, and edge-level flow intensity within a unified framework. Specifically, a node-edge collaborative representation module captures regional semantics, temporal dynamics, and spatial priors through interactive node-edge updates, producing structure-aware representations for dynamic OD interactions. Based on these representations, SAGMTL estimates OD flows by jointly modeling stable demand patterns and short-term fluctuations. A multi-constraint objective further improves sparsity awareness and structural consistency. Experiments on three real-world urban mobility datasets from Beijing, Chengdu, and Nanjing show that SAGMTL achieves superior overall performance compared with state-of-the-art baselines. Further analysis demonstrates that explicitly modeling regional activity, connection states, and flow intensity improves the robustness of dynamic sparse OD demand prediction.

交通预测图神经网络多任务学习

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