用太阳磁场数据和可解释AI预测强太阳耀斑,提升预报可信度。
Prediction of Solar Flares Using Photospheric Magnetic Field Parameters with Deep Learning

- 结合太阳光球层磁场参数与深度学习模型进行耀斑预测。
- 引入SHAP和部分依赖图分析特征重要性,提升模型可解释性。
- 适合空间天气研究者及需要高可信度预警的机构使用。
太阳耀斑,尤其是M级和X级耀斑,对地球上的关键基础设施和通信系统有重大影响。准确预测耀斑对于降低风险至关重要,但传统深度学习模型的黑箱特性限制了其可信度和可解释性。本文提出一种新方法,利用光球层磁场参数与深度学习进行耀斑预测。为提高模型可解释性,我们在预测框架中整合了可解释人工智能(XAI)技术,包括SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)和部分依赖图(PDPs)。XAI方法通过分析模型所用特征的重要性和相互作用,提供透明性:SHAP值实现全局与局部特征理解,PDPs揭示特征层面的趋势。这些技术展示了在太阳耀斑预测等高影响力应用中部署AI解决方案的潜力,推动太阳物理与空间天气研究中的更明智决策。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Solar flares, particularly those of the M- and X-class, have a significant impact on human life because of their potential to disrupt critical infrastructure and communication systems on Earth. Accurate prediction of solar flares is crucial for mitigating these risks, but the black-box nature of conventional deep learning models used in flare prediction limits their trustworthiness and interpretability. In this paper, we propose a new approach to solar flare prediction using photospheric magnetic field parameters or features with deep learning. To improve model interpretability, we integrate explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques, including SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and partial dependence plots (PDPs), into our prediction framework. XAI methods provide transparency by analyzing the importance and interactions of features used by our model. Specifically, SHAP values offer a global and local understanding of the features, while PDPs provide insights into feature-level trends. These techniques demonstrate the potential of XAI in deploying AI-driven solutions in high-impact applications such as solar flare prediction, paving the way for more informed decision-making in solar physics and space weather studies.
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