arXiv:2606.22171cs.LG2026-06KDD

融合时空多模态数据,提升疫情预测精度与可解释性。

Beyond Time Series: Spatial Reasoning for Epidemic Forecasting via Multimodal Learning

论文配图:Beyond Time Series: Spatial Reasoning for Epidemic Forecasting via Multimodal Learning
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过注意力机制融合时间序列与空间辅助信号,实现跨区域协同推理。
  • 在新冠、流感等多任务中优于现有最先进模型,提升预测准确性。
  • 揭示空间信息何时何地起作用,帮助识别单纯时间模型的失效场景。

传统疫情预测模型通常依赖行政区域上报的监测数据,将其视为基本单元,忽视了影响疾病传播的亚区域空间结构。本文提出一种结构化的多模态疫情预测框架,整合区域级时间监测数据与高分辨率、异构的空间辅助信号,反映真实公共卫生报告中的分辨率与结构差异。基于此,我们提出M-SPICE(Multimodal SPatIal Context for Epidemic Forecasting),一个结构感知的时空预测框架,通过基于注意力的多模态融合机制,联合建模时间疾病动态与空间上下文,使空间信号能选择性地调节不同预测时序的时间表征。我们在真实世界中的新冠、流感及流感样症状(ILI)预测任务上,采用实时评估协议进行验证。结果表明,该方法在所有预测设置中均持续优于当前最先进的多变量时间序列、多模态及流行病学预测基线,同时保持优异的概率预测性能。可解释性分析进一步揭示了空间信号被利用的时间、空间位置与方式,凸显仅依赖时间聚合模型在特定情境下的局限性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Epidemic forecasting models typically rely on surveillance data reported over administrative regions, treating them as atomic units, thereby obscuring sub-regional spatial structure that shapes disease dynamics. We introduce a spatially structured multimodal epidemic forecasting setting that integrates region-level temporal surveillance data with spatially localized auxiliary signals that are misaligned in resolution and structure, reflecting realistic public health reporting constraints. Building on this formulation, we propose M-SPICE (Multimodal SPatIal Context for Epidemic Forecasting), a structure-aware spatiotemporal forecasting framework that performs joint reasoning over temporal disease dynamics and spatial context via attention-based multimodal fusion, allowing spatial signals to selectively condition temporal representations across forecast horizons. We evaluate our approach on real-world COVID-19, influenza, and influenza-like illness (ILI) forecasting tasks under realistic real-time evaluation protocols. Across all forecasting settings, our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art multivariate time-series, multimodal, and epidemiological forecasting baselines while maintaining strong probabilistic forecasting performance. Finally, interpretability analyses reveal when, where, and how spatial signals are leveraged, highlighting settings in which purely temporal, region-aggregated models are most likely to fail.

疫情预测时空建模多模态融合可解释性

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