解决多传感器在无标签情况下的偏差融合问题,提升预测准确性和不确定性校准。
Neural Conjugate Aggregation: Identifiable Unsupervised Multi-Sensor Regression under Heterogeneous Sensor Bias

- 用神经网络结合共轭高斯推断构建可识别的无监督融合模型
- 在真实空气质量数据上预测误差降低17%,不确定性更可靠
- 适合传感器存在异质偏差的工业监测与环境感知场景
我们研究在不确定性下的基于回归的数据融合问题,即多个存在噪声和偏差的测量源可用,但训练时缺乏真实标签。该场景常见于传感器网络、模拟集合和科学监测系统,其中监督成本高昂或不可行。本文提出神经共轭聚合模型(NCAM),一种层次化贝叶斯框架,将神经网络与共轭高斯推断结合,实现无监督多源融合。NCAM 能根据上下文协变量学习各传感器特有的偏差与可靠性,对潜在目标变量生成解析可处理的后验分布,并分解出认知不确定性和随机不确定性。通过传感器锚定和方差正则化解决结构不可识别性,实现稳定且可解释的后验聚合。为补充贝叶斯不确定性,引入局部自适应蒙特卡洛合约定理,生成满足交换性假设下覆盖率保证的异方差预测区间。在合成数据和真实空气质量数据集上的实验表明,相比均值聚合、概率主成分分析和卡尔曼滤波等无监督基线方法,NCAM 在预测精度和不确定性校准方面均有提升。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We study regression-based data fusion under uncertainty, where multiple noisy and biased measurement sources are available but ground-truth labels are absent during training. This setting arises in sensor networks, simulation ensembles, and scientific monitoring systems where supervision is costly or infeasible. We propose the Neural Conjugate Aggregation Model (NCAM), a hierarchical Bayesian framework that combines neural networks with conjugate Gaussian inference for unsupervised multi-source fusion. NCAM learns source-specific bias and reliability conditioned on contextual covariates, yielding an analytically tractable posterior over a latent target variable with decomposed epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. Structural non-identifiability is resolved through sensor anchoring and variance regularization, enabling stable and interpretable posterior aggregation. To complement Bayesian uncertainty with finite-sample guarantees, we integrate locally adaptive Monte Carlo conformal prediction, producing heteroscedastic prediction intervals with coverage guarantees under exchangeability assumptions. Experiments on synthetic and real-world air-quality datasets demonstrate improved predictive accuracy and well-calibrated uncertainty compared to unsupervised baselines, including mean aggregation, probabilistic PCA, and Kalman filtering.
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