arXiv:2606.22770cs.LGstat.ME2026-06

突破传统假设,用新方法捕捉数据间隐藏关联,提升预测准确性。

Statistical Matching via Schrödinger Bridge beyond Conditional Independence

论文配图:Statistical Matching via Schrödinger Bridge beyond Conditional Independence
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 引入基于传输代价的舒宁格桥模型,打破条件独立假设限制。
  • 在合成与真实数据上,下游预测性能显著优于经典方法。
  • 特别适合数据重构等存在强隐含关联的场景,如人脸与人口数据匹配。

统计匹配用于合并共享协变量X但分别观测目标变量Y和辅助变量Z的不完全重叠数据集。传统方法依赖条件独立假设(CIA),该假设虽使问题可识别,却隐含辅助变量在已知X后对Y无额外预测力。为捕捉潜在的Y-Z依赖关系,本文提出一种依赖感知的舒宁格桥方法。通过以运输为基础的兼容性代价调整保守的CIA基线,耦合两个分离数据库,恢复有信息量的联合分布。所提学习框架可实现双向插补的完整概率后验规则。理论上,我们建立了学习到的桥梁严格优于CIA基线的充分条件,并在高斯设定下给出精确联合恢复保证。在合成基准与真实数据集(CelebA与Adult)上的实验表明,该依赖感知填充方法持续提升下游预测效用,尤其在数据重编码等存在强Y-Z依赖的场景中表现突出。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Statistical matching combines partially overlapping datasets that share covariates $X$ but observe the target $Y$ and auxiliary variables $Z$ separately. Classical approaches typically invoke the conditional independence assumption (CIA), which makes the problem identifiable but fundamentally implies that the imported auxiliary variable provides no additional predictive power for $Y$ once $X$ is known. To capture this latent $Y$--$Z$ dependence, we propose a novel dependency-aware Schrödinger bridge for predictive statistical matching. Our approach couples the two separated databases by tilting the conservative CIA baseline with a transportation-based compatibility cost, recovering an informative joint distribution. The resulting statistical learning framework yields full probabilistic posterior rules for bidirectional imputation. Theoretically, we establish a sufficient condition under which the learned bridge strictly improves over the CIA baseline, alongside an exact joint recovery guarantee in the Gaussian setting under an appropriate cost. Across synthetic benchmarks and real-world datasets (CelebA and Adult), we demonstrate that our dependency-aware completion consistently improves downstream predictive utility, proving especially beneficial in settings like data recoding where the underlying population exhibits strong $Y$--$Z$ dependence.

统计匹配舒宁格桥联合建模数据融合

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