用神经网络从群体行为反推博弈参数,无需个体数据。
Neural Parameter Calibration for Finite-State Mean Field Games
- 将参数校准设为逆问题,通过隐式微分反向传播求解均衡
- 可学习随状态和时间变化的参数路径,支持复杂动态建模
- 适用于真实城市交通等复杂系统,无需观测个体行为
均值场博弈(MFG)能高效近似大量策略性参与者组成的系统。然而,其在现实应用中面临参数设定难题:博弈中的隐藏偏好、约束与交互关系通常无法理论推导或直接观测。为此,我们提出一种基于神经网络的框架,从观测到的群体动态中学习参数化的有限状态均值场博弈。我们将参数校准建模为逆问题,并利用隐式微分技术对博弈均衡进行反向传播。该方法完全可微,可估计灵活的轨迹级参数路径,包括依赖状态和时间的参数设定,且无需个体代理的行为或收益观测。我们在离散时间框架下证明了梯度计算的精确性。通过四个逐步复杂的系统验证了该框架,涵盖合成的线性二次基准模型到真实城市出行数据集。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Mean field games efficiently approximate a very large population of strategic agents. While these games can aid the understanding of complex systems, their deployment in real-world settings is challenged by the specification of their parameters: mean field games (MFGs) often involve hidden preferences, constraints, and interactions that can rarely be theoretically derived or directly observed. To address this gap, we present a neural network-based framework for learning parametric, finite-state MFGs from observed population dynamics. To do so, we formulate the parameter calibration as an inverse problem and use implicit differentiation to backpropagate through the games' equilibrium. The resulting approach is fully differentiable and enables us to estimate flexible trajectory-wise parameter paths, including state- and time-dependent specifications without requiring observations of the individual agents' actions or rewards. We provide a proof for the exactness of the gradient computation in a discrete-time formulation. We validate our framework through numerical experiments across four systems of increasing complexity, ranging from synthetic linear-quadratic benchmarks to real-world urban mobility datasets.
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