提出可解释的电力负荷预测模型,揭示移动模式与用电量的复杂关系。
Interpretable Kolmogorov-Arnold Network with Feature-Isolated Temporal Attention Mechanism for Electricity Load Forecasting

- 设计特征隔离的时序注意力机制,独立提取各输入特征的动态
- 在三个美国电力市场数据集上表现媲美顶尖黑箱模型
- 通过可学习激活函数揭示六类移动模式与用电量的市场特异性关联
精准的电力负荷预测是电力系统稳定运行的关键前提。尽管主流深度学习模型性能优异,但通常为黑箱且缺乏可解释性。虽然柯尔莫哥洛夫-阿诺德网络(KAN)因可学习激活函数设计而成为有前景的替代方案,但其直接用于时间序列预测时难以捕捉复杂时序模式。简单替换现有模块也无法充分发挥其可解释性优势。为此,本文提出LoadKAN——一种新型混合可解释框架,将专门设计的特征隔离时序注意力机制与KAN模块协同结合。注意力阶段独立提取各输入特征(如历史负荷、人类移动性)的时序动态,生成精炼特征表示供KAN模块进行可解释预测。在三个代表性美国电力市场数据集上的评估显示,LoadKAN在性能上媲美经过充分调优的前沿黑箱深度学习基准。更重要的是,其可解释性支持对六类不同移动模式与电力负荷之间非线性关系的细粒度分析。通过KAN学习的激活函数,我们对移动特征的定量敏感性分析揭示了复杂且市场特定的依赖关系,进一步证明LoadKAN能生成黑箱模型常遮蔽的洞察。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate electricity load forecasting is a crucial prerequisite for stable power system operations. While prevalent deep learning models present competitive performance, they often operate as black boxes and lack interpretability. While the Kolmogorov-Arnold network (KAN) has emerged as a promising alternative because of its learnable activation function design, its direct application to time-series forecasting faces challenges in modeling complex temporal data patterns. Also, simple integration into existing architectures, such as serving as replacement of neural modules, cannot fully leverage KAN's interpretability strengths. To address these gaps, this study develops LoadKAN, a novel hybrid and interpretable framework for load forecasting that synergistically combines a specifically-designed feature-isolated temporal attention mechanism with a KAN module. The attention stage aims to extract temporal dynamics from each input feature independently, such as historical load and human mobility, providing distilled feature representations to the KAN module for interpretable predictions. When evaluated on datasets from three representative U.S. electricity markets, our LoadKAN remains highly competitive when compared to extensively-tuned, state-of-the-art, black-box deep learning benchmarks. More importantly, LoadKAN's interpretability enables a granular analysis of the learned non-linear relationships between six distinct mobility patterns and electricity load. Through KAN-learned activation functions, our quantitative sensitivity analyses on mobility features reveal complex and market-specific dependencies. These findings further demonstrate the ability of our LoadKAN to generate insights often obscured by opaque black-box neural forecasting models.
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