用未来损失优化实验设计,让机器自动选最有效的实验方案。
Action-BED: Task-Driven Bayesian Experimental Design with Singly Intractable Objectives

- 以未来任务损失为优化目标,替代传统不确定性减少
- 无需估计后验或边缘似然,仅需采样和损失评估
- 可灵活适配不同任务,适合需要高效实验规划的场景
贝叶斯实验设计(BED)传统上基于最大化从先验到后验的不确定性减少,但此类目标通常为双重不可行,难以优化,且难以针对特定下游任务定制。本文基于决策理论基本原理,提出以预期未来损失(EFL)作为替代目标,构建简单自然的任务驱动框架。关键发现是:所有此类EFL均可重写为单重不可行目标,可通过随机梯度联合优化设计策略与下游动作策略,该方法称为ACTION-BED。该框架无需显式后验或边缘似然估计,天然隐式,仅需从模型参数与数据的联合分布中采样,并能评估下游损失函数。因此,设计策略可更有效、高效、简便地学习,同时轻松适配不同下游任务与损失函数。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Bayesian experimental design (BED) has traditionally been based on maximising expected uncertainty reductions from prior to posterior. A major shortfall of this approach is that it leads to doubly intractable objectives that are difficult to optimise, while customising them to particular downstream tasks of interest can also be difficult. Following first principles decision theory, we demonstrate that BED can alternatively be formulated in terms of an expected future loss (EFL) on downstream actions, providing a simple and naturally task-driven framework. Critically, we then show that all such EFLs can be rearranged into singly intractable objectives that can be jointly optimised with respect to both the design policy and a downstream action policy using stochastic gradients, an approach we refer to as ACTION-BED. This formulation further sidesteps the need for any explicit posterior or marginal likelihood estimation and is naturally implicit, requiring only the ability to sample from the joint model over model parameters and data, and evaluate the downstream loss function. It thus allows design policies to be learned more effectively, efficiently, and simply than existing methods, while providing easy customisation to different downstream tasks and losses.
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