arXiv:2606.24062cs.LGcs.AI2026-06

金融时序预测中,模型能自适应调整分析窗口长度,提升预测精度。

RAVEN: A Regime-Aware Variable-context Expert Network for Financial Time Series Forecasting

论文配图:RAVEN: A Regime-Aware Variable-context Expert Network for Financial Time Series Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 根据数据自动确定不同时间跨度的分析窗口,取代固定回溯长度。
  • 在沪深300上提升皮尔逊相关系数9.2%,在标普500上提升20.2%。
  • 适合需要捕捉市场状态变化的量化交易与金融风控场景。

金融时序预测面临标准基准中不存在的结构性挑战:对数收益率非平稳,信噪比极低,且受状态依赖的时间依赖性支配。我们发现当前最先进(SOTA)时序模型在金融场景中的关键局限——固定上下文窗口与非平稳价格过程随时间变化的最优回溯期不匹配。为此提出制度感知可变上下文专家网络(RAVEN),一种混合专家框架,可自适应为每个输入样本确定时间上下文。不同于固定回溯周期,RAVEN构建由数据决定长度的嵌套连续窗口。具体地,按逆时间顺序学习评分切片,并通过累积重要性阈值(CIT)机制生成嵌套前缀窗口,分别路由至尺度特化的专家。并行运行的全局压缩表示(GCR)分支覆盖全上下文,保持局部专家无法保证的全局时间连贯性。由于嵌套路由导致专家输入存在结构化重叠,引入相关性感知加权(CAW)对变量长度专家输出进行对齐,并在聚合前惩罚成对余弦相似度。在累计对数收益预测(HS300、S&P500)及基金销售预测实验中,RAVEN达到SOTA表现,在HS300上提升皮尔逊相关系数9.2%,在S&P500上提升20.2%,基金销售预测均方误差降低18.2%,并在四个PEMS交通基准的16项指标中取得14项最佳结果。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Financial time series forecasting presents structural challenges absent from standard benchmarks. Log-returns are non-stationary, exhibit exceptionally low signal-to-noise (SNR) ratios, and are governed by regime-dependent temporal dependencies. We identify a key limitation of state-of-the-art (SOTA) time series models in financial settings. A fixed context window is mismatched to the time-varying optimal look-back of non-stationary price processes. We propose the Regime-Aware Variable-context Expert Network (RAVEN), a Mixture-of-Experts framework designed to adaptively determine the temporal context for each input sample. Instead of relying on a fixed look-back horizon, RAVEN constructs a hierarchy of nested contiguous windows whose lengths are determined by the data itself. Specifically, RAVEN scores patches by learned importance in reverse chronological order and applies the Cumulative Importance Thresholding (CIT) mechanism to derive nested prefix windows, each routed to a scale-specialized expert. A Global Compressed Representation (GCR) branch runs in parallel over the full context, preserving global temporal coherence that local experts cannot guarantee. Because the nested routing induces structured overlap among expert inputs, we introduce a Correlation-Aware Weighting (CAW) to align variable-length expert outputs and penalize pairwise cosine similarity prior to aggregation. Experiments on cumulative log-return prediction (HS300, S&P500) and fund sales forecasting demonstrate that RAVEN achieves SOTA performances, improves Pearson correlation by 9.2% on HS300 and 20.2% on S&P500, and reduces MSE by 18.2% on fund sales forecasting, while achieving the best results in 14 of 16 metrics on four PEMS traffic benchmarks.

金融预测时间序列混合专家自适应窗口

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