arXiv:2606.24370cs.AIcs.CY2026-06

LLM在实用建议场景中会抑制因果谨慎性,影响决策可靠性。

When Helpfulness Overrides Causal Caution: Context-Dependent Suppression and Recovery in LLMs

  • 用因果层级评分框架评估模型在不同场景下的因果判断倾向
  • 实用场景下因果谨慎性维持率降至6.7%~18.3%,远低于学术场景的91.7%~100%
  • 添加简短自检提示可恢复71.4%~100%的因果谨慎表达,适合治理设计

大型语言模型(LLMs)正越来越多地应用于商业与政策决策支持。以往评测主要关注因果推理能力,却忽略了更根本的认知维度:因果谨慎性,即在证据不足时避免做出因果判断的倾向。本研究考察了当模型从学术场景转向实际建议场景时,因果谨慎性被系统性抑制的现象。基于佩尔的因果层级(PCH评分)设计评估框架,对四款高性能模型——Claude Sonnet 4.6、Claude Opus 4.7、GPT 5.5和Gemini 3.1 Pro——在480次试验中进行测试。在学术场景中,因果谨慎性维持率为91.7%~100%,但在实际建议场景中骤降至6.7%~18.3%(Fisher精确检验,所有模型p < .001)。当仅接收要求具体建议或解释理由的实用提示时,200个回应中仅有1个(0.5%)保持因果谨慎性。添加简短自检提示“请从因果关系角度重新考虑此判断”后,因果谨慎性恢复至71.4%~100%(McNemar检验,所有模型p < .001)。结果表明,以帮助性为导向的响应模式可能压制实际场景中的因果谨慎性,这对组织治理具有重要启示。该抑制反映的是表达上的情境依赖变化,而非能力缺失,提示将生成与因果审计分离的多智能体架构可能是可行的治理方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into decision-support roles in business and policy contexts. While prior benchmark studies have primarily evaluated LLMs' causal reasoning capabilities, a more fundamental epistemic dimension has been overlooked: Causal Caution, defined as the propensity to refrain from causal judgment when empirical evidence is insufficient. This study examines the systematic suppression of Causal Caution that occurs when LLMs shift from academic to practical advisory contexts. Using an evaluation rubric inspired by Pearl's Causal Hierarchy (the PCH score), we conducted experiments on four high-performance LLMs -- Claude Sonnet 4.6, Claude Opus 4.7, GPT 5.5, and Gemini 3.1 Pro -- across 480 trials. Causal Caution maintenance rates were 91.7--100.0% in academic contexts but dropped to 6.7--18.3% in practical advisory contexts (Fisher's exact test, p < .001 across all models). Furthermore, when restricted to practical prompts requesting concrete recommendations or explanatory rationales, only 1 of 200 responses (0.5%) maintained Causal Caution. A brief self-correction prompt -- "Please reconsider this judgment from the perspective of causal relationships" -- restored the expression of Causal Caution to maintenance rates of 71.4--100.0% (McNemar's test, p < .001 across all models). These results suggest that helpfulness-oriented response patterns may suppress the expression of Causal Caution in practical advisory contexts, with important implications for organizational governance. The findings indicate that this suppression reflects context-dependent variation in expression rather than an underlying capability limitation, suggesting that multi-agent architectures that separate proposal generation from causal auditing may offer a promising governance design.

大模型治理因果推理提示工程

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