arXiv:2606.24955cs.LG2026-06中稿 · KDD

让电力预测模型持续学习,自动适应数据变化。

Towards Continuous Power Forecasting: Practical Continual Learning for Real-World Energy Systems in Nonstationary Time Series

  • 将电力预测视为持续学习问题,避免反复训练。
  • 在真实数据上验证模型能抗遗忘并随时间提升性能。
  • 适合需要长期运行、历史数据受限的能源系统。

实际能源市场中的电力预测模型需应对非平稳数据分布的持续变化,如天气波动、基础设施升级和用电行为变迁。实践中,这些模型面临严格约束:历史数据可能有限或不可用,且要求长期不间断服务。本文提出连续电力预测范式,将预测任务视为持续学习问题而非静态离线任务。基于回归任务的自适应持续学习框架,系统评估了三类方法中的六种代表性持续学习策略,在不同数据可及性和更新策略假设下进行验证。基于真实电力数据集的实验表明,持续学习使模型能够自我适应分布漂移、积累知识并缓解灾难性遗忘,无需依赖大规模历史数据存储。研究还揭示了不同方法在实际约束下的稳定性与适应特性。总体而言,该工作展示了持续学习如何切实融入工业级电力预测流程,为动态环境中的长期部署提供可扩展、可持续的解决方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Power forecasting models deployed in real-world energy markets must operate under nonstationary conditions, where data distributions continually evolve due to weather variability, infrastructure upgrades, and changing consumption behaviors. In practice, these models face strict operational constraints: historical data may be limited or unavailable for repeated retraining, and uninterrupted long-term service is often required. This paper addresses these challenges by proposing the paradigm of Continuous Power Forecasting, which views power forecasting as a continual learning problem rather than a static offline task. Based on an adaptive continual learning framework for regression, we systematically investigate the practical effectiveness of six representative continual learning approaches from three methodological categories. These approaches are evaluated under different realistic assumptions regarding data accessibility and update policies. Experimental validation on real-world power datasets demonstrates that continual learning enables forecasting models to self-adapt to distributional drift, accumulate knowledge over time, and mitigate catastrophic forgetting without relying on large-scale historical data storage. Beyond performance gains, our study provides practical insights into the stability and adaptation behaviors of different continual learning approaches under realistic operational constraints. Overall, this work illustrates how continual learning can be pragmatically integrated into industrial power forecasting pipelines, offering a scalable and sustainable solution for long-term deployment in dynamic environments.

电力预测持续学习时间序列

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