arXiv:2606.25188cs.LG2026-06

提出高效多模态回归不确定性量化方法,兼顾精度与速度。

Efficient Analytic Uncertainty Quantification for Multi-Modal Regression

论文配图:Efficient Analytic Uncertainty Quantification for Multi-Modal Regression
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于变分贝叶斯框架,统一处理分位数回归与分类恢复
  • 实现复杂条件分布估计与快速不确定性推断,优于现有基线
  • 适用于数据稀缺场景的主动学习,适合追求高可靠性的工业应用

高效不确定性量化对可信赖的大规模学习至关重要。现有回归任务的不确定性量化方法多假设条件标签分布为单峰参数模型(如高斯分布),此时负对数似然退化为均方误差。然而,在具有多模态分布的任务中,此类单峰假设失效。另一方面,虽半参数方法在多模态回归上表现优异,但通常缺乏高效的预测方差量化能力。本文将基于变分贝叶斯推断(VBI)的不确定性量化技术拓展至两种广泛使用的半参数回归模型——分位数回归(QR)与分类恢复(CR),二者能生成类直方图的条件标签密度重建。所提方法构建了一个统一、分布无关的框架,同时实现复杂条件分布的精准估计与高效的不确定性量化。理论上,该方法在VBI框架下对QR和CR进行了新形式建模,导出解析的证据下界(ELBO)以简化训练,并提供闭式或解析近似的预测密度以实现高效推理。实验上,我们在三个具有多模态标签分布的大规模回归基准上评估该方法,结果表明其性能超越当前最优多模态回归基线,甚至匹配计算成本高昂的集成模型。此外,通过利用认知不确定性估计,该方法实现了高度数据高效的主动学习策略。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Efficient uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for trustworthy large-scale learning. Existing UQ methods for regression tasks mainly operate under the assumption that the conditional label marginal satisfies single-peak parametric models, e.g., Gaussians, where the negative log-likelihood function simplifies to the mean square error. However, such single-peak assumptions fail in regression tasks featuring multi-modal distributions. On the other hand, semi-parametric methods which achieve strong regression performance for multi-modal distributions often lack efficient quantification on their prediction variances. In this work, we extend UQ techniques based on Variational Bayesian Inference (VBI) to two widely used semi-parametric regression models that yield histogram-like reconstructions of the conditional label densities: Quantile Regression (QR) and Classification Restoration (CR). Our approach introduces a unified, distribution-agnostic framework that simultaneously achieves accurate estimation of complex conditional distributions and highly efficient UQ. Theoretically, our method is grounded in novel formulations of QR and CR within the VBI framework, yielding analytic Evidence Lower Bounds (ELBO) to streamline training and a closed-form or analytically approximated predictive density for efficient inference. Empirically, we evaluate our methods on three large-scale regression benchmarks with multi-modal label distributions. Our framework outperforms state-of-the-art multi-modal regression baselines, and even matches predictive performance of computationally expensive ensemble models. Furthermore, by leveraging epistemic uncertainty estimation, our approach enables highly data-efficient active learning strategies.

不确定性量化多模态回归变分推断主动学习

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