arXiv:2606.25274cs.LGcs.AI2026-06

提出一种延迟约束控制的搜索机制,提升决策可行性。

UC-Search: Risk-Aware Test-Time Search for Delayed Constrained Time-Series Control

  • 仅依赖历史轨迹进行受控搜索,确保动作可行性。
  • 在M4Weekly上风险活跃率96.42%,仍高于0.95阈值。
  • 适合对安全性要求高的时间序列控制场景。

时间序列部署常需延迟可行决策,而不仅是精准预测。UC-Search是一种仅依赖轨迹的保留搜索层,用于延迟约束控制:冻结主干网络输出预测或动作评分,硬可行性自动机向前推进路径,有界搜索返回首个可行轨迹的动作。核心主张为条件性:仅当延迟可行集耦合、保留前缀前提和失败闭锁释放证书成立时,保留前瞻才能改善延迟约束决策。推广的公开端点为经过Phase128认证的M4 expanded40:验证选择证书约束的保留帕累托束(λ=0.25),保留测试集的证书/风险活跃率为1.0000/0.9642,最弱家族在M4Weekly上仍高于不变的0.95门限(达0.9516)。作者定义的9家族套件仍为未经认证的压力测试边界。论文报告了一种仅轨迹机制、一个认证公开端点、失败路径证书与部署边界,而非普适的风险控制定理。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time-series deployments often need delayed feasible decisions, not only accurate forecasts. UC-Search is a trace-only retained-search layer for delayed constrained control: a frozen backbone emits forecasts or action scores, a hard-feasibility automaton rolls paths forward, and bounded search returns the first action of a feasible trajectory. The main claim is conditional: retained lookahead can improve delayed constrained decisions only when delayed feasible-set coupling, retained-prefix premises, and fail-closed release certificates hold. The promoted public endpoint is Phase128 certified M4 expanded40: validation selects Certificate-Constrained Retained Pareto Beam with $λ=0.25$, the held-out test has certificate/risk-active rates $1.0000/0.9642$, and the weakest family remains above the unchanged $0.95$ gate at $0.9516$ on M4Weekly. The author-defined public $9$-family suite remains an uncertified stress-test boundary. The paper reports a trace-only mechanism, one certified public endpoint, failed-route certificates, and deployment boundaries rather than a universal risk-control theorem.

时间序列控制风险感知

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