arXiv:2606.25728cs.IR2026-06

模拟火星殖民地辐射下结核潜伏感染的再激活与传播,评估防控策略效果。

A Stochastic Epidemiological Model of Latent Tuberculosis in a Radiation Exposed Mars Colony

论文配图:A Stochastic Epidemiological Model of Latent Tuberculosis in a Radiation Exposed Mars Colony
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建辐射-免疫-结核再激活-空气传播的随机模型
  • 无初始感染者时仍可自发出现活动性结核,风险取决于潜伏池大小和辐射敏感度
  • 自适应干预策略有效降低传染负担,适合任务前风险评估

建立火星殖民地辐射暴露环境下潜伏结核再激活的随机流行病学模型。模型将银河宇宙射线与免疫能力关联,免疫能力影响潜伏结核再激活,再激活引发封闭空间内空气传播。将防控措施分配建模为部分可观测序列决策问题,采用固定基线或基于代理的模拟器训练的近端策略优化策略进行隔离与用药决策。仿真显示:即使初始无传染病例,活动性结核仍可内生出现;风险最敏感于潜伏感染池规模、辐射-免疫耦合强度及再激活敏感度。自适应控制策略显著降低感染负担与死亡率,同时减少不必要的干预。该框架可用于任务前对筛查、监测、屏蔽与治疗策略进行定制化压力测试。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Plans to establish a sustained human presence on Mars have moved from speculative ambition toward concrete engineering programmes, making the biological consequences of settlement an increasingly practical question. A Mars colony would place a small, closed population in an environment combining chronic radiation, altered immunity, constrained medical autonomy, and engineered indoor air. Latent infections are especially important because clinically silent carriers may become sources of transmissible disease when host control deteriorates. In this study, we develop a stochastic host-radiation-pathogen-habitat model of latent tuberculosis reactivation in a Mars colony. The model links galactic cosmic radiation to immune competence, immune competence to latent-tuberculosis reactivation, and reactivation to airborne transmission in a closed habitat. We also formulate countermeasure allocation as a partially observable sequential decision problem in which isolation and medication are selected by fixed baselines or by a proximal policy optimization policy trained on an agent-based simulator. Our simulations show that active tuberculosis can emerge endogenously despite no initial infectious cases, and that risk is most sensitive to latent reservoir size, radiation-immune coupling and reactivation sensitivity. Adaptive control reduced infectious burden and mortality while limiting unnecessary intervention. This framework supports mission-specific stress testing of screening, monitoring, shielding and treatment strategies before launch.

流行病学火星殖民结核病随机模型

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