让大模型预测符合经济规律,提升选择模型准确性与可信度
Embedding Foundation Model Predictions in Discrete-Choice Models with Structural Guarantees
- 用双阶段适配器将大模型输出嵌入多项式对数几率模型,保证经济逻辑一致
- 平均提升6.4个百分点准确率,100%满足价格越高需求越低的单调性
- 适合交通、消费等需符合经济学原理的选择建模场景
表格型基础模型在选择预测任务中表现优异,但其预测常违背经济逻辑:提价可能导致需求上升,估算的支付意愿频繁为负或不现实,不可用选项获得非零概率。本文提出两阶段适配器:第一阶段在带符号约束下以最大似然法拟合多项式对数几率模型的结构系数;第二阶段冻结系数,训练一个小神经网络对基础模型预测进行修正。该组合严格保持多项式对数几率模型的边际替代率,使可计算的“时间价值”成为数学保证而非偶然现象。在三个数据集和两个基础模型上,适配器相比多项式对数几率模型平均提升6.4个百分点测试准确率,最高达12.8个百分点,保持100%成本单调性,在交通数据集上的时间价值落在已发表交通经济学范围内。当基础模型上下文缩减至原规模的10%时,性能仍保持至少6个百分点的增益。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Tabular foundation models achieve strong accuracy on choice prediction tasks, but their predictions often violate the economic logic those tasks require: raising a price can increase predicted demand, implied willingness-to-pay estimates are frequently negative or implausible, and unavailable alternatives receive nonzero probability. We propose a two-stage adapter that takes a foundation model's predicted choice probabilities as a precomputed feature and embeds them inside a multinomial logit's utility. In Stage 1, we fit the multinomial logit's structural coefficients by maximum likelihood with sign constraints; in Stage 2, we freeze those coefficients and fit a small neural correction operating on the foundation model's predictions. We prove that this composition exactly preserves the multinomial logit's marginal rate of substitution, so analytically computable value-of-time becomes a mathematical guarantee rather than an empirical accident. Across three datasets and two foundation models, the adapter gains 6.4 percentage points (pp) of test accuracy on average over the multinomial logit and up to 12.8 pp, maintains 100% cost monotonicity, and produces values of time within the published transportation-economics range on the transportation datasets. Performance degrades gracefully under foundation-model context restriction, retaining at least 6 pp of accuracy gain even at 10% of the original foundation-model context.
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