用严格正确评分规则训练概率滤波器,提升复杂系统状态估计精度。
Learning Probabilistic Filters with Strictly Proper Scoring Rules

- 基于合成数据和能量评分规则,训练可置换不变的Transformer分析映射。
- 在非高斯、多模态等复杂场景下,滤波精度显著优于经典方法与均方误差学习法。
- 适合需要高精度不确定性量化的大规模动态系统建模任务。
贝叶斯滤波旨在在线推断部分可观测动态系统的状态后验分布,是不确定性量化的自然选择,但通常难以作为监督学习目标。然而,可通过预报模型生成合成轨迹与观测数据。本文提出正则评分集成滤波器(PSEF),一种基于合成状态-观测轨迹训练分析映射以逼近滤波分布的集合数据同化方法。分析步骤采用置换不变的Transformer映射,输入为预报集合与观测值,输出分析集合。训练基于严格正确评分规则(本实现中使用能量评分),奖励整个概率分布的准确性。我们证明,在可实现性假设下,总体目标函数的最小值由真实贝叶斯滤波分布达成。同时推导了有限集合下的经验目标函数,并通过均场一致性论证其与总体目标的关系。数值实验表明,该学习滤波器能准确逼近复杂的滤波分布,包括非线性、非高斯及多模态后验,且在数据同化任务中表现优于经典方法或基于均方误差的目标方法。对于接近高斯分布的问题,修正EnKF的方法更优;而对于高度非高斯问题,摒弃归纳偏置的端到端方法更具优势。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Bayesian filtering of partially and noisily observed dynamical systems seeks to infer the evolving conditional distribution of the state of a dynamical system, given observations, in an online fashion. This Bayesian filtering distribution is the natural object for uncertainty quantification, but it is rarely available as a supervised learning target. However, one can often use the forecast model to generate synthetic system trajectories, along with synthetic observations. We introduce the proper scoring ensemble filter (PSEF), an ensemble data assimilation method based on training an analysis map to approximate the filtering distribution using only synthetic state--observation trajectories. The analysis step is represented as a permutation-invariant, transformer-based map that takes as input a forecast ensemble and observations, producing an analysis ensemble. Training is based on strictly proper scoring rules -- with the energy score used in our implementation -- so that probabilistic accuracy is rewarded over the whole probability distribution. We prove that, under a realizability assumption, the population objective is minimized by the true Bayesian filtering distribution. We also derive the finite-ensemble empirical objective used in training and relate its single state--observation trajectory form to the population objective, using a mean-field consistency argument. Numerical experiments show that the learned filter accurately approximates challenging filtering distributions, including nonlinear, non-Gaussian, and multi-modal posteriors, and achieves stronger performance in data assimilation tasks than classical methods or learning-based methods with mean-squared-error objectives. For close-to-Gaussian problems, learning a correction to the EnKF is the best approach, while for highly non-Gaussian problems an end-to-end approach that discards this inductive bias is superior.
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