arXiv:2606.26549cs.AIcs.LG2026-06被引 1

提出PMDformer模型,通过分离趋势与形状信息提升长期预测精度。

PMDformer: Patch-Mean Decoupling Information Transformer for Long-term Forecasting

论文配图:PMDformer: Patch-Mean Decoupling Information Transformer for Long-term Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将每个片段均值减去,分离趋势与形状特征
  • 在多个基准上优于现有最先进方法,稳定性和准确率双高
  • 适合需要高精度长期预测的能源、金融等场景

长期时间序列预测(LTSF)在能源管理、金融和交通预测等领域至关重要。基于Transformer的模型采用分块策略捕捉长程依赖,但因尺度差异,准确建模片段间形状相似性仍具挑战。为此,本文提出片段均值解耦(PMD),通过减去每段均值分离趋势与残差形状信息,保留原始结构,确保注意力机制聚焦真实形状相似性。为进一步有效建模长程依赖及跨变量关系,提出趋势恢复注意力(TRA)与邻近变量注意力(PVA)。前者在计算注意力输出时重新整合PMD解耦的趋势;后者聚焦最近相关时间片段进行跨变量注意力,避免对过时相关性的过拟合。结合上述组件,提出PMDformer,专为长期预测中形状相似性建模设计。大量实验表明,PMDformer在多个LTSF基准上显著优于现有最先进方法,在稳定性和准确性上表现更优。代码已开源:https://github.com/aohu1105/PMDformer。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) plays a crucial role in fields such as energy management, finance, and traffic prediction. Transformer-based models have adopted patch-based strategies to capture long-range dependencies, but accurately modeling shape similarities across patches and variables remains challenging due to scale differences. To address this, we introduce patch-mean decoupling (PMD), which separates the trend and residual shape information by subtracting the mean of each patch, preserving the original structure and ensuring that the attention mechanism captures true shape similarities. Futhermore, to more effectively model long-range dependencies and capture cross-variable relationships, we propose Trend Restoration Attention (TRA) and Proximal Variable Attention (PVA). The former module reintegrates the decoupled trend from PMD while calculating attention output. And the latter focuses cross-variable attention on the most relevant, recent time segments to avoid overfitting on outdated correlations. Combining these components, we propose PMDformer, a model designed to effectively capture shape similarity in long-term forecasting scenarios. Extensive experiments indicate that PMDformer outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods in stability and accuracy across multiple LTSF benchmarks. The code is available at https://github.com/aohu1105/PMDformer.

时间序列Transformer长期预测注意力机制

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