用自动化框架预测无线网络研究趋势,助科研人员捕捉热点。
Forecasting Technological Directions in Wireless Networks and Mobile Computing via AutoML Framework

- 集成聚类、主题建模与时间序列的自动分析流程
- 基于12.7万篇论文摘要,预测准确率RMSE达36.76
- 适合关注科技趋势的科研人员与技术决策者
科学论文爆炸式增长催生了新研究趋势。本文提出一个自动化管道,用于预测无线网络与移动计算领域的研究动向,整合了聚类、主题建模与时间序列分析。该流程从高影响力期刊和会议中收集127,820篇论文摘要,经预处理后使用SPECTER模型生成语义嵌入。AutoCluster通过元学习选择最适配的聚类算法,确保语义一致性;AutoTopicModeling采用逐次减半策略为每个聚类选出最优主题模型,并结合大语言模型进行主题标注与可选泛化。最后,AutoTrendAnalysis将主题标签转化为时间序列,应用ARIMA、STL、Prophet或LSTM模型预测未来热度。根据预测轨迹将主题分类为强信号、弱信号或噪声,提供可解释的新兴与衰退研究方向洞察。该框架具备可扩展性与适应性,适用于多学科趋势分析。实验表明其具有高预测精度,均方根误差(RMSE)为36.76。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The exponential increase in scientific publications has driven the emergence of new trends. Accurate forecasting of these developments is essential for researchers and professionals to stay updated with advancements in the field. This study presents an automated pipeline for trend prediction in the wireless networks and mobile computing domain by integrating clustering, topic modeling, and time series analysis. The process begins with the collection of 127,820 abstracts from high-impact journals and conferences, followed by extensive preprocessing and semantic embedding using the SPECTER model. AutoCluster applies meta-learning to select the most suitable clustering algorithm based on the dataset meta-features, ensuring semantically coherent groupings. AutoTopicModeling then employs a successive halving strategy to identify the best-performing topic model per cluster, followed by LLM-assisted topic labeling and optional label generalization. Finally, AutoTrendAnalysis transforms topic-labeled data into time series and applies forecasting models -ARIMA, STL, Prophet, or LSTM - to predict future topic popularity. Topics are classified as strong, weak, or noise signals based on forecast trajectories, offering interpretable insights into emerging and declining research themes. The framework is scalable, adaptive, and designed for robust trend analysis across scientific domains. Experimental results demonstrated high predictive accuracy, achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 36.76.
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