同一模型不同部署方式,效果差异大,选对部署策略能显著提升预测精度。
Deployment-Side Adaptiveness in Multi-Horizon Volatility Forecasting

- 通过调整推理时的滚动规则,同一模型可生成多组预测,影响准确性和成本。
- 验证集选择的部署策略比默认方法在20个股票序列上提升性能,且小规则集效率更高。
- 部署策略对评估指标敏感,不能通用,适合关注部署优化的金融建模者。
在多时域波动率预测中,模型的预测表现不仅取决于训练过程,还受部署方式影响。我们发现,同一多输出(MIMO)模型通过改变推理时的滚动规则,可生成一组具有不同精度与成本特征的预测。在20个股票波动率序列、三个预测时域及从线性模型到PatchTST的多种架构上,非默认滚动规则常优于标准MIMO部署。但最优固定规则随模型架构和时域变化显著,单一静态替代不可靠。因此我们评估基于验证集的部署策略,在主要使用MSE目标时,验证选择的单一规则实现低成本改进;小规则子集即可恢复大集成的大部分收益,同时大幅降低推理成本。此外,策略排名具有指标敏感性:基于MSE选择的策略无法直接迁移至QLIKE(金融标准损失函数)。结果表明,推理时部署是金融预测中重要的自适应来源,模型应同时评估其架构与部署策略。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In financial forecasting, predictive performance depends not only on which model is trained, but also on how the trained model is deployed. We study this issue in multi-horizon volatility forecasting. Our starting point is that a trained multi-output (MIMO) forecaster does not define a single deployable predictor: by changing the inference-time rollout rule, the same trained model induces a family of forecasts with different accuracy and cost profiles. Across 20 stock-volatility series, three forecast horizons, and architectures ranging from linear models to PatchTST, we find that non-default rollout rules often improve over standard MIMO deployment. However, the best fixed rule varies substantially across architectures and horizons, making any single static replacement unreliable. We therefore evaluate validation-based deployment policies over the induced rule family. Under the primary MSE objective, validation-selected singletons provide a low-cost improvement over default MIMO, while small rule subsets recover much of the benefit of larger ensembles at substantially lower inference cost. We also find that policy rankings are metric-sensitive: MSE-selected policies do not transfer uniformly to QLIKE, a finance-standard volatility loss. These results show that inference-time deployment is a meaningful source of adaptiveness in financial forecasting, and that trained volatility forecasters should be evaluated not only by their architecture, but also by their deployment policy.
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