arXiv:2606.27711cs.LGcs.AI2026-06

用决策理论预训练神经网络,实现高精度时间序列预测与推断。

The Simulacrum: Decision-Theoretic Pretraining for Near-Optimal Time-Series Forecasting and Inference

论文配图:The Simulacrum: Decision-Theoretic Pretraining for Near-Optimal Time-Series Forecasting and Inference
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于生成世界和目标函数进行神经网络预训练,学习最优决策规则。
  • 在真实数据集上达到或超越传统方法的预测精度,且能控制偏差和校准性。
  • 适合需要精准决策支持的金融、经济等领域的研究人员使用。

我们提出一种基于神经网络的时间序列估计器学习框架,称为决策理论预训练。分析师需指定一个生成世界(数据生成过程的分布)和目标决策目标。神经网络通过该世界的分层模拟训练,近似对应最优决策规则,从而提供零样本推断的预测、参数估计、预测区间或模型选择。联合指定生成世界与目标,使估计器可直接逼近过程级、有限样本性质:近似最优风险、偏差控制、极小极大性能和统一校准。实验表明,这些神经估计器在相同模型结构下优于最大似然估计和AICc模型选择。即使仅在结构化模型模拟上训练,其在主要真实世界基准上的预测准确率也达到或超过统计方法、神经网络及大预训练模型。我们以自回归模型中的有限样本偏差与校准问题、预测组合难题为例,展示了该框架优势:可逼近解析不可解或计算代价高昂的时间序列问题,如复杂结构方程或最优性准则。最终,该框架通过显式控制决策权衡,为分析者提供高度定制化的高效估计工具。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We introduce a neural network-based framework for learning time series estimators through a process we term decision-theoretic pretraining. Analysts specify a generative world, a distribution over data-generating processes, and a target decision objective. A neural network trained on stratified simulations from this world approximates the corresponding optimal decision rule, yielding a neural estimator that provides forecasts, parameter estimates, predictive intervals, or model-selection for zero-shot inference on previously unseen time series. The joint specification of the generative world and objective enables the estimators to directly approximate process-level, finite-sample properties: near-optimal risk, bias control, minimax performance, and uniform calibration. Our experiments demonstrate that these neural estimators can outperform traditional baselines such as maximum likelihood estimation and model selection via AICc, for the same model structural model classes. Furthermore, even when trained purely on simulations of structural models, they achieve competitive or state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy on major real-world benchmarks, compared with statistical, neural or large pre-trained models. We illustrate the framework by addressing two longstanding challenges: finite-sample bias and miscalibration in AR(p) models, and the forecast combination puzzle. These applications highlight the approach's main advantage: its ability to approximate solutions to analytically intractable or computationally prohibitive time series problems, including complex structural equations or optimality criteria. Ultimately, by enabling explicit control over decision-theoretic trade-offs, the framework equips analysts with highly efficient estimation tools tailored to their specific analytical needs.

时间序列神经网络决策理论预训练

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