arXiv:2606.27908cs.LG2026-06

轻量级模型提升长期时间序列预测精度,有效应对波动与干扰。

TA-SparseMG: Trend-Aware Sparse Forecasting via Multi-Scale Gating for Long-Term Time Series

论文配图:TA-SparseMG: Trend-Aware Sparse Forecasting via Multi-Scale Gating for Long-Term Time Series
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过多尺度门控机制捕捉跨周期依赖关系
  • 在多个基准上实现更优且稳定的预测性能
  • 适合对效率与精度有要求的工业场景

长期时间序列预测广泛应用于电力需求、交通流量、气象观测和可再生能源调度等领域。动态变化的长期序列存在统计非平稳性、局部高频扰动和跨周期耦合依赖等固有挑战,使轻量级模型难以兼顾参数效率与预测性能。为此,本文提出TA-SparseMG,一种基于SparseTSF稀疏跨周期建模框架的轻量级跨周期预测模型。其包含三个核心模块:趋势感知可逆实例归一化模块、尺度自适应门控去噪模块和多尺度门控注意力MLP预测模块。趋势感知归一化模块捕捉输入窗口统计特性并校准预测窗口分布,有效缓解分布偏移;尺度自适应门控去噪模块在周期重排前进行特征平滑与残差抑制,降低高频扰动影响;多尺度门控注意力预测模块通过条件门控与特征调制增强预测头的自适应表征能力。在多个LTSF基准上的大量实验表明,所提TA-SparseMG持续实现更优且稳定的性能。消融实验验证各模块独立提升分布适应性、输入鲁棒性和跨周期特征映射能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Long-term time series forecasting finds extensive applications in domains such as power demand, traffic flow, meteorological observation, and renewable energy dispatch. Forecasting dynamically varying long-term time series poses inherent challenges, including statistical nonstationarity, local high-frequency disturbances, and coupled cross-period dependencies, which make it difficult for lightweight models to balance parameter efficiency and forecasting performance. To address this issue, this study presents TA-SparseMG, a lightweight cross-period forecasting model built on SparseTSF's sparse cross-period modeling framework. It incorporates three key modules: a trend-aware reversible instance normalization module, a scale-adaptive gated denoising module, and a multiscale gated-attention MLP forecasting module. The trend-aware normalization module captures input-window statistics and calibrates forecast-window distributions, effectively mitigating distribution shift. The scale-adaptive gated denoising module performs feature smoothing and residual suppression before period rearrangement, thereby reducing interference from high-frequency perturbations. The multiscale gated attention prediction module strengthens the prediction head's adaptive representational capacity via conditional gating and feature modulation. Extensive experiments across multiple LTSF benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed TA-SparseMG consistently achieves superior, stable performance. Ablation studies confirm that each module independently improves distribution adaptation, input robustness, and cross-period feature mapping capability.

时间序列轻量模型预测

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。