arXiv:2606.29111cs.AIecon.GN2026-06被引 2

研究AI进步下企业如何分配人机工作,影响员工技能积累与职业选择。

Managing the Human Fallback: Skill Investment Under Improving AI and Worker Mobility

  • 企业需在让AI干活和留人参与间权衡,影响当前产出与未来人力资本。
  • 工人流动使企业更倾向投资高技能员工,因其技能提升价值更高且成本更低。
  • AI可靠性提高可能减少人工投入,而能力增强则会激励更多人力参与。

当企业部署自主AI时,需决定将多少工作交给系统、多少保留给员工。这一决策影响当前产出与未来人力资本。本文构建一个两期简化模型,其中AI在正常运行时可优于员工,但存在正概率故障。企业选择员工参与程度:参与降低低绩效员工的当前产出,但通过学习与技能维持影响未来能力。区分AI进步的两个维度:能力(系统运行时的输出水平)与可靠性(系统正常运行的概率)。在单一企业基准情形下,参与仅作为后备投资有价值,最不熟练员工获最多投入,因他们技能差距大且提升成本低。在工人可流动情况下,参与还影响劳动力市场匹配:员工偏好能提升更有价值技能轨迹的工作。此匹配动机使企业更关注接近AI前沿的高技能员工,因其技能增益价值高且投入成本低。因此,流动性可能逆转投入模式,将资源从最不熟练者转向最熟练者(低于AI基准者)。此外,流动性改变AI进步对参与的影响:能力提升增加参与(因技能路径价值上升),而可靠性提升可能增加或减少参与(因降低后备需求,同时改变学习机会)。在工人流动背景下,人机分工成为人力资本投资问题,今日工作分配塑造未来技能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

When firms deploy autonomous AI, they must decide how much work to leave to the system and how much to keep workers engaged. This decision affects current output and future human capital. We develop a parsimonious two-period model in which AI may outperform the worker when it functions, but may fail with positive probability. A firm chooses worker engagement; engagement lowers current output for below-benchmark workers, but changes future skill through learning and erosion. We distinguish two dimensions of AI progress: capability, the system's output when it works, and reliability, the probability that it works. In a single-firm benchmark, engagement is valuable only as fallback investment. The firm engages the least-skilled workers most, because they have the largest skill gaps and are least costly to bring toward a useful fallback level. With worker mobility, engagement also affects labor-market sorting: workers prefer jobs that build more valuable skill trajectories. This sorting motive targets higher-skill workers near the AI frontier, where skill gains are more valuable and engagement is less costly. Mobility can therefore reverse the engagement pattern, shifting investment from the least-skilled toward the most-skilled workers below the AI benchmark. Mobility also reshapes how AI progress affects engagement: greater capability raises engagement by increasing the value of the skill trajectory a firm offers, whereas greater reliability can raise or lower it because it reduces fallback need while also changing learning opportunities. Under worker mobility, human-AI work design becomes a problem of human-capital investment, in which allocating work today shapes future skill.

人机协作技能投资劳动流动AI管理

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