arXiv:2606.29347cs.LGcs.AI2026-06

用市场状态动态调整注意力,提升股市预测准确率

Adaptive Financial Transformer with Regime-Gated Attention for Stock Return Prediction

论文配图:Adaptive Financial Transformer with Regime-Gated Attention for Stock Return Prediction
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 按金融指标语义分组95个特征,按市场状态调节注意力
  • 在多只股票上实现更高预测精度,参数效率提升15.2%
  • 适合关注可解释性与真实回测性能的量化研究者

针对非平稳金融市场中的股票收益预测问题,提出自适应金融Transformer(AFT)模型。该模型引入市场状态编码器、自适应门控网络和自适应金融上下文模块,基于金融指标间的语义关系动态调整自注意力机制。不同于传统Transformer对所有输入特征一视同仁,本方法将95个工程化金融特征划分为11个语义类别,并根据隐含市场状态自适应调整注意力权重。研究还识别并修正了序列对齐与回测中导致绩效虚高的问题,设计了一种融合预测误差、方向准确性与非重叠夏普比率的金融感知复合目标函数。通过时间序列评估、五次随机种子实验、消融研究、超参优化、可解释性分析及多股票验证,结果表明该模型在保持竞争力预测性能的同时,降低15.2%模型复杂度,提升参数效率,提供可解释的金融时序预测框架。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Adaptive Financial Transformer (AFT) is proposed for stock return prediction under non-stationary financial markets. The model incorporates a Market Regime Encoder, an Adaptive Gate Network, and an Adaptive Financial Context module to dynamically bias self-attention based on semantic relationships between financial indicators. Unlike conventional Transformer architectures that treat all input features uniformly, the proposed approach groups 95 engineered financial features into 11 semantic categories and adapts attention according to latent market regimes. The study also identifies and corrects sequence alignment and backtesting issues that can inflate reported trading performance, and introduces a financially-aware composite objective that jointly optimizes prediction error, directional accuracy, and non-overlapping Sharpe ratio. Extensive experiments compare the proposed architecture against classical machine learning models, recurrent neural networks, and Transformer baselines using chronological evaluation, five random seeds, ablation studies, hyperparameter optimization, explainability analysis, and multi-stock validation. Results demonstrate competitive predictive performance while reducing model complexity by 15.2% and improving parameter efficiency through feature selection, providing an interpretable Transformer architecture for financial time-series forecasting.

金融预测自适应注意力Transformer可解释性

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