arXiv:2606.29403stat.MLcs.AI2026-06

通过无监督分组提升预测覆盖率,解决区域覆盖不均问题。

Self-Organized Conformal Prediction: Reducing Regional Coverage Gaps with Unsupervised Group Discovery

论文配图:Self-Organized Conformal Prediction: Reducing Regional Coverage Gaps with Unsupervised Group Discovery
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用自组织映射发现特征空间中的相似区域,无需标签
  • 在9个数据集上降低14.3%的覆盖率差距,输出仅增加3%
  • 适合需要精准局部校准且不想重训练模型的研究者

共形预测保证边缘覆盖率,但统一校准分位数可能掩盖特征空间中异质区域的系统性欠覆盖。本文提出自组织共形预测(SOCP),利用无监督自组织映射(SOM)发现输入空间分组,无需校准标签。预测时,查询样本的最佳匹配单元(BMU)从单个单元、固定网格邻域或基于原型扩展的区域提取校准缓冲区。当固定邻域过稀疏时,第3种策略按原型距离添加单元,全局预算由训练单元占有率和计划校准规模预先确定。预测器与非共形得分保持不变。仅使用单元检索具有精确的单元条件有效性,任意固定单元集合的组合也具精确检索集有效性。在中心单元处解释邻域阈值会引入显式的柯尔莫哥洛夫-斯米尔诺夫(KS)偏差项。在十个回归与分类基准测试中,相比池化分割共形预测,SOCP在九个数据集上减少了加权覆盖率差距,平均相对变化为-14.3%,输出大小平均增加3.0%。在固定邻域检索下,SO组合在50次对比中有43次降低十种子均覆盖率差距;而SO-SCP在所有数据集上各三类外部划分粒度下,平均对每一对种子都显著降低覆盖率差距。该方法提供了一条无需监督分组或重新训练预测器的组内局部校准路径,并配备诊断工具包,同时明确展示局部性的成本与限制。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conformal prediction guarantees marginal coverage, but a pooled calibration quantile can hide systematic undercoverage across heterogeneous regions of the feature space. We introduce Self-Organized Conformal Prediction (SOCP), a calibration scheme that discovers input-space groups with an unsupervised Self-Organizing Map (SOM) trained without calibration labels. At prediction time, the query's best-matching unit (BMU) draws a calibration buffer from one cell, a fixed grid neighborhood, or a prototype-based enlargement. When fixed neighborhoods are too sparse, Regime 3 adds cells by prototype distance, using a global budget selected from training-cell occupancies and the planned calibration size before any calibration score is observed. The predictor and nonconformity score remain unchanged. Cell-only retrieval has exact cell-conditional validity, and each fixed union of cells has exact retrieved-set validity. Interpreting a neighborhood threshold at its central cell incurs an explicit Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) bias term. Across ten regression and classification benchmarks, SOCP reduces the weighted coverage gap relative to pooled split conformal prediction on nine datasets. The mean relative change is $-14.3\%$, at a mean output-size change of $+3.0\%$. Under fixed-neighborhood retrieval, SO composition lowers the ten-seed mean WCovGap in $43$ of the $50$ dataset-score comparisons, while SO-SCP lowers it on average over paired seeds for every dataset at all three tested external partition granularities. These results provide a concise route to group-local calibration without supervised partitions or predictor retraining with a diagnostic toolkit, while keeping the cost and limits of locality explicit.

共形预测无监督分组覆盖率优化局部校准

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