30秒级电离层电子含量预测,可捕捉扰动事件动态变化。
t-STEP: An interpretable model for Total Electron Content predictions and irregularities estimations
- 基于GPS数据构建可解释的t-STEP模型,实现30秒分辨率预测
- 2015年高太阳活动期预测准确率达91%,MAE为4.38 TECU
- 无需单独建模即可监测不同强度地磁暴中的不规则性
依赖卫星技术的地球系统基础设施(如GPS通信)易受电离层总电子含量(TEC)梯度影响。由于其动态性和瞬时性,基于物理约束建模仍具挑战。现有机器学习模型虽可预测小时级TEC变化,但难以保留小尺度不规则性。为此,本文提出可解释的t-STEP模型,以30秒分辨率预测TEC并从模拟信号中估计不规则性特征。该高采样率使速率变化率(ROT)与ROT指数(ROTI)成为诊断电离层变异性的指标。模型基于太阳活动周期24期间位于5.49°S, 47.49°W的站点GPS观测数据构建。采用动态时间规整等多指标评估框架进行稳健性验证,并利用SHAP分析特征贡献。30秒预测在2015年高太阳活动期达到91%准确率,平均绝对误差(MAE)为4.38 TECU。相比国际参考电离层模型IRI-2020,小时级模型准确率提升35%,绝对误差降低57%,预测能力提高54%。更重要的是,该模型能有效捕捉不同强度地磁暴期间的TEC不规则动态与形态,优于相同条件下基于注意力机制的LSTM模型。本研究证明单一预测框架即可实现可扩展的不规则性监测,无需为个别瞬态事件单独建模。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Earth system infrastructures relying on satellite-based technologies, such as Global Positioning System (GPS) communications, are affected by ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) gradients. Modeling these gradients under physical constraints remains challenging due to their dynamic and transient nature. While existing machine learning (ML) models can predict hourly TEC variations, it remains unclear whether their temporal resolution is sufficient to preserve small-scale TEC irregularities within predicted signals. To address this gap, we introduce an interpretable ML-based model, t-STEP, designed to predict TEC at a 30-second resolution and estimate irregularity signatures from the modeled signals. This high cadence enables the derivation of Rate of TEC changes (ROT) and the ROT Index (ROTI) as diagnostic indicators of ionospheric variability. The model is developed using GPS observations from solar cycle 24 at a station located at 5.49°S, 47.49°W. A multi-metric evaluation framework, including dynamic time warping, is used for robustness assessment, while SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) provides insight into feature contributions. The 30-second TEC predictions achieve 91% accuracy with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.38 TECU during high solar activity (2015). Compared with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2020), the hourly model improves accuracy by 35%, reduces absolute errors by 57%, and increases prediction skill by 54%. More importantly, the 30-second model captures TEC irregularity dynamics and morphologies during geomagnetic storms of different intensities, outperforming an attention-based Long Short-Term Memory model under the same experimental conditions. This study demonstrates the potential of a single TEC prediction framework for scalable irregularity monitoring without requiring separate models for individual transient events.
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