用神经符号方法让AI自动做投资分析,更准更省时。
The CRISTAL Method: Neurosymbolic analysis from AI-synthesized world models

- 结合概率模型与大模型,动态构建可解释的分析系统
- 5个样本5秒内达贝叶斯最优准确率,远超现有模型
- 适合需要可靠、可复现决策的金融分析场景
本项目提出CRISTAL方法(一致可靠的意图化真理分析逻辑合成),一种用于自动化复杂分析流程的神经符号框架,以基础投资分析为主要应用场景。该领域面临高结构不确定性、数据噪声与主观性强、注意力预算紧张以及需有依据且可复现决策等挑战。人类分析师常因认知偏见和能力局限而表现不佳,凸显自动化价值。尽管已有基于大语言模型(LLM)的代理作为辅助,但其在数值推理、不确定性感知和可复现性方面的不足限制了其有效性。CRISTAL通过统计模型合成、持续学习与主动学习的有机结合,解决上述问题。从自然语言先验知识课程出发,构建动态、可解释的概率程序,支持完整贝叶斯推断,包括不确定性量化与预算感知的数据获取。分析过程中持续优化世界模型,利用LLM进行代码生成与学习。我们在一个包含丰富金融与文本数据的合成股票新基准上验证了CRISTAL。在公司分类任务中,仅用5个样本和5秒预算即达到贝叶斯最优准确率,显著优于最先进大模型——后者即使使用多一个数量级的数据与算力,准确率也仅约40%。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This project introduces the CRISTAL Method (Coherent Reliable Intentional Synthesis of Truthful Analysis Logic), a neurosymbolic framework for automating complex analysis workflows, with fundamental investment analysis as a primary use case. This domain poses major challenges: high structural uncertainty, noisy and subjective data, tight attention budgets, and the need for justified, reproducible decisions. Human analysts often struggle in this domain due to cognitive biases and limitations, suggesting significant value in automation. But while LLM-based agents have been proposed as analytical aids, their limitations -- poor numerical reasoning, unawareness of uncertainty, and lack of reproducibility -- hinder their effectiveness in this context. CRISTAL addresses these gaps through a principled blend of statistical model synthesis, continuous learning, and active learning. Starting from a natural-language prior knowledge curriculum, CRISTAL builds a dynamic, interpretable probabilistic program that enables full Bayesian inference, including uncertainty quantification and budget-aware data acquisition. CRISTAL continually refines its world model during analysis, leveraging LLMs for code synthesis and learning. We validate CRISTAL on a novel benchmark of synthetic equities with rich financial and textual data. On a company classification task, CRISTAL achieves Bayes-optimal accuracy with just 5 examples and a 5-second budget, outperforming state-of-the-art LLMs that plateau around 40\% accuracy even with order-of-magnitude more input data and compute.
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