用维基手机访问量预测实时旅游热度，效果优于桌面端。
Behind the Content: Wikipedia Mobile Views and Tourism Activity
- 区分手机与电脑访问，手机流量更反映实地即时需求。
- 手机浏览量与当日酒店入住数正相关，且在热门景点更强。
- 适合做旅游实时监测，数据透明可复现。
本研究探讨开放数字痕迹能否作为地方旅游活动的可解释、高频指标。我们提出，维基百科访问设备类型有助于区分现场信息使用与远程规划：手机页面访问更可能反映在地、实时的信息需求，而桌面访问则体现时间分散的兴趣。将2018至2025年法国704个市镇的酒店房间预订量与维基百科城市页面流量进行匹配分析，发现手机访问量与当日酒店需求呈正相关，且在联合模型中主导了桌面流量。该关系在以休闲为主的旅游目的地及维基可见度较高的地区更为显著。通过奥尔良六处文化景点的日参观人数进行微观验证，同样发现手机访问量能预测当日入场人数，而前后时间滞后效应接近零。研究结果表明，手机维基流量可作为透明、可复现的旅游活动实时预测信号。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This study examines whether open digital traces can provide interpretable, high-frequency indicators of local tourism activity. We argue that the device composition of Wikipedia attention helps distinguish situated information use from remote planning: mobile pageviews are more likely to reflect on-site, contemporaneous information needs, whereas desktop pageviews capture temporally diffuse interest. Linking daily Accor hotel room-nights to Wikipedia city-page traffic for 704 French communes from 2018 to 2025, we find that mobile pageviews are positively associated with same-day hotel demand and dominate desktop traffic in joint specifications. The relationship is stronger in leisure-oriented destinations and in places with higher Wikipedia visibility. A micro-validation using daily attendance at six cultural attractions in Orl{é}ans shows the same pattern: mobile pageviews predict same-day gate counts, while surrounding leads and lags are close to zero. The findings position mobile Wikipedia traffic as a transparent, replicable nowcasting signal for tourism activity.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品；中文卡片由大模型生成，请以原文为准。