arXiv:2606.30020cs.CV2026-06

用互学习提升病理模型不确定性估计,让AI判断更可信。

Uncertainty Estimation in Pathology Foundation Models via Deep Mutual Learning

论文配图:Uncertainty Estimation in Pathology Foundation Models via Deep Mutual Learning
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用多模型互学习对齐,以分歧度衡量预测不确定性
  • 在三种数据集上均可靠识别异常,且定位准确无需标注
  • 适合临床部署,帮助医生识别模型易错场景

病理基础模型(PFM)为全切片图像(WSI)分析提供可迁移表征,但其临床应用受限。主要问题在于预测缺乏可靠的置信度估计,且无单一模型在各类任务中始终最优,严重削弱医疗场景下的信任度。为此,我们提出$ t{DICE}$——一种即插即用的框架,集成K个冻结的PFM,并将它们的分歧作为不确定性估计的代理。通过深度互学习对齐模型成员,理论上证明该目标能上界模型不确定性。此外,我们发现集成结果的共识能在不依赖显式监督的情况下,实现病变在图像块层面的准确定位。在三个具有挑战性的WSI基准上评估$ t{DICE}$,结果表明其在分布内和分布外设置下均能准确识别高风险失败案例,同时在分类、校准和定位性能上达到或超越现有最先进水平。总体而言,$ t{DICE}$为构建具备不确定性感知能力的病理决策支持系统迈出关键一步。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Pathology foundation models (PFMs) offer generalizable representations for whole-slide image (WSI) analysis, yet their clinical adoption remains limited. Specifically, their predictions lack reliable confidence estimates, and no single PFM is universally best across tasks, which severely undermines trust in medical settings. To overcome this, we propose $\mathtt{DICE}$, a plug-and-play framework that ensembles $K$ frozen PFMs and models their disagreement as a proxy for uncertainty estimation. To ensure this proxy yields meaningful estimates, we align the ensemble members via deep mutual learning, and theoretically show that this objective upper-bounds the model uncertainty. Additionally, we demonstrate that the ensemble's consensus localizes abnormalities at the patch level without any explicit supervision. We evaluate $\mathtt{DICE}$ on three challenging WSI benchmarks. Notably, our framework provides reliable uncertainty estimates that accurately flag failure-prone cases under in- and out-of-distribution settings, while matching or outperforming SOTA baselines in classification, calibration, and localization. Overall, $\mathtt{DICE}$ takes a crucial step toward translating PFMs into uncertainty-aware decision-support systems.

病理分析不确定性估计模型集成医学AI

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