arXiv:2606.30578cs.CLcs.LG2026-06

让大模型在模糊任务中生成更可信的回应,提升决策可靠性。

Uncertainty-Aware Generation and Decision-Making Under Ambiguity

  • 基于贝叶斯与风险规避理论,结合不确定性建模进行决策。
  • 在辅导和同行评审任务中,生成结果的实用性显著提升。
  • 适合需要高可信度输出的教育、评测等场景使用。

随着大型语言模型(LLMs)能力的快速提升,其在复杂现实任务中的应用日益广泛。这些任务不仅需要深度知识与推理能力,还具有高度主观性,要求模型输出具备可信赖性。尽管模型训练已取得显著进展,但决策算法仍受关注不足。本文基于贝叶斯决策理论与风险规避决策,在辅导与自动同行评审任务中评估多种不确定性感知决策算法。具体而言,我们在生成导师回复或评审意见时,考虑对教学策略与评分的不确定性,并利用置信预测(conformal prediction)提供策略与评分的保证。实验表明,这些算法能提升生成结果的效用,但在高模糊性情境下需谨慎实施:风险规避规则可能因追求通用输出而降低性能,而贝叶斯方法表现更优。本工作将决策理论技术引入基于LLM的决策过程,指出了该领域尚存的开放挑战。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

With rapidly improving capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in many complex real-world tasks. Beyond requiring in-depth knowledge and reasoning skills, many of these tasks exhibit a high degree of subjectivity and require that the outputs of the model can be trusted. While a lot of progress has been made to train better models, decision-making algorithms have received less attention. In this work, we present and evaluate various uncertainty-aware decision-making algorithms based on Bayesian decision theory and risk-averse decision making on the tasks of tutoring and automatic peer reviewing. Concretely, we take uncertainty over tutoring strategies and review scores into account when generating a tutor response or review and use conformal prediction to provide guarantees over strategy and score. We find empirically that these algorithms can improve the utility of the generations but need to be carefully implemented when ambiguity is high. For example, risk-averse rules can degrade performance by optimizing for generic outputs, while Bayesian methods tend to perform better. Our work uses techniques from decision theory to improve LLM-based decision-making and outlines open challenges for the community.

大模型决策不确定性可信生成

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