arXiv:2606.31207cs.AIcs.CY2026-06

研究老年人在城市出行中的独特轨迹模式,揭示数据缺失会导致模型误判。

Towards Inclusive Mobility Modeling: Characterizing and Evaluating Elderly Trajectory Patterns in Urban Systems

论文配图:Towards Inclusive Mobility Modeling: Characterizing and Evaluating Elderly Trajectory Patterns in Urban Systems
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过对比不同年龄群体的出行轨迹,发现老年人活动范围更小、行为更规律。
  • 用合成数据验证:主流数据训练的模型会高估老人步行距离和停留时间。
  • 提醒城市规划者关注数据代表性,避免技术偏见影响弱势群体福祉。

智慧城市建设依赖轨迹数据挖掘,但老年人等少数群体在公共出行数据中常被忽略,导致建模偏差。本研究基于2016–2020年新泽西市共享单车数据子集,定量分析少数群体缺失对出行建模的影响。结果显示,老年人出行空间半径为958米(青年为1189米),移动熵值更低(1.82 vs. 4.15),且非对称分布于非高峰时段。通过对比三种训练设置——全人群、仅青年、仅老年——使用一阶马尔可夫链与微调后的Qwen3-4B模型,发现主流数据训练的模型系统性高估老年人步长(+4.5%)与停留时间(+8.9%),而针对老年人的数据训练则显著降低误差。对比表明,模型能力再强,若缺乏少数群体数据,仍无法准确捕捉其出行特征。研究强调了在出行建模中确保人口多样性的重要性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The rapid advance of smart cities increasingly depends on trajectory data mining, yet underrepresented demographic groups, particularly the elderly, are often sparsely represented in public mobility datasets. This underrepresentation can introduce systematic bias into mobility modeling and downstream urban planning. Using the 2016-2020 Jersey City subset of the Citi Bike System Data, this study quantitatively examines how the absence of underrepresented subgroups' mobility signatures affects mobility modeling, using synthetic trajectory generation as a case study. The analysis reveals that elderly riders exhibit a structurally distinct mobility signature, including localized activity spaces (958 m vs. 1,189 m for young riders), lower mobility entropy (1.82 vs. 4.15), and asymmetric off-peak temporal patterns. To demonstrate that relying on majority-dominated training data yields biased synthetic outcomes, we further evaluate both a first-order Markov chain and a Qwen3-4B model fine-tuned with QLoRA across three demographic training settings: the full population, young riders only, and elderly riders only. Results show that models trained on majority-dominated populations systematically misrepresent elderly mobility behavior, particularly for spatial mobility metrics. The Markov model trained on the full population overestimates elderly step length by 4.5% and dwell time by 8.9%, whereas the elderly-specific model achieves substantially lower errors across most metrics. Comparisons between the Markov and LLM-based frameworks further show that higher-capability models do not necessarily improve subgroup-level fidelity under limited demographic data. These findings underscore the importance of demographic representation in mobility modeling and its downstream applications for underrepresented populations.

出行建模老年人数据偏见城市规划

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。