arXiv:2606.31209cs.AIcs.RO2026-06中稿 · ed

用结构化自回归模型实现长时间交通仿真,提升真实感与稳定性。

Long-term Traffic Simulation via Structured Autoregressive Modeling

论文配图:Long-term Traffic Simulation via Structured Autoregressive Modeling
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将交通场景映射为可变长度的结构化序列,融合拓扑与状态信息。
  • 在Waymo数据集上实现最先进短时与长时仿真精度,长时稳定性强。
  • 提出检索式评估法,更贴近人类对交通真实性的判断标准。

交互式交通仿真对自动驾驶至关重要。长期模拟的核心挑战在于建模持续的多智能体交互,且随车辆进出导致动态标记数量变化。本文发现大型序列模型(如大语言模型)的注意力机制迁移性与运动标记分布与自然语言的一致性,使小型、高度冻结的LLM能快速适配交通建模。基于此,我们提出RosettaSim框架,将场景拓扑、智能体状态与生成意图统一投影为可变长度的结构化自回归流,在保证短期高精度的同时实现长期模拟稳定性。此外,针对长时间回放评估中智能体一一对应关系逐渐消失的问题,提出检索式交通评估(RTE),通过检索真实世界相似场景作为语义感知的参考锚点。在Waymo Open Sim Agent Challenge (WOSAC) 上的实验表明,RosettaSim在短时与长时仿真中均达到当前最优表现。RTE与标准指标相关性达r=0.83,优于现有方法(r=0.74),显示其对长期仿真保真度的更好捕捉能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Interactive traffic simulation is a vital world model for autonomous driving. A central challenge in long-horizon simulation is modeling sustained multi-agent interactions, which is further exacerbated by dynamic token cardinality as agents continuously enter and exit the scene. In this work, we propose that the solution lies in the synergy between the architectural inductive biases and statistical priors of large-scale sequence models, e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs). Our probing experiments reveal that the transferability of attention mechanisms and the distributional consistency between motion tokens and natural language enable small-scale, heavily frozen LLMs to rapidly adapt to traffic modeling. Building on this insight, we introduce RosettaSim, a unified framework that projects scene topology, agent states, and spawning intents into a structured autoregressive stream with variable length, achieving both strong short-term accuracy and stable long-horizon simulation fidelity. Furthermore, evaluating extended rollouts presents yet another hurdle, as one-to-one agent correspondence inevitably fades over time. To address this, we introduce Retrieval-based Traffic Evaluation (RTE), which retrieves semantically similar real-world scenarios as context-aware reference anchors. Experiments on the Waymo Open Sim Agent Challenge (WOSAC) demonstrate that RosettaSim achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short- and long-term simulation. Furthermore, RTE exhibits a stronger correlation with standard metrics ($r=0.83$) than existing approaches ($r=0.74$), indicating improved alignment with long-horizon simulation fidelity.

交通仿真自回归模型长时预测评估方法

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