用AI实现全球公里级天气模拟,效率提升50倍。
Scaling Storm-Resolving Atmospheric AI Simulation to the Entire Planet

- 构建自回归AI模型STRATA,通过局部块叠加实现全球大气模拟。
- 17天数据训练后,每兆瓦时可产48天模拟,比物理模型节能50倍。
- 适合气候研究、极端天气预测等需要高分辨率的场景。
公里级对流影响降水极端事件、热带系统组织及云反馈,但多数全球大气模型以25-100公里分辨率进行近似。全球风暴解析物理模型虽能显式模拟对流系统,但能耗极高——约需1兆瓦时/日的超算资源,限制了长时间模拟。本文提出STRATA(风暴解析分块自回归大气变换架构),首个用于全球风暴解析大气动力学的自回归AI模拟器。其训练数据为迄今最高分辨率的全球AI模拟数据集:17天的SCREAM物理模型输出,分辨率为4.9公里(约2500万网格点),每10分钟采样一次。核心假设是:在10分钟时间尺度上,大气动态主要局部化,因此采用小空间块训练,以换取丰富的局部空间样本,支持通过重叠块拼接实现全球推演。STRATA结合3D补丁嵌入与局部3D邻域注意力,引入新型球面旋转位置编码(StereoRoPE)实现网格不变编码,并采用像素空间去混叠解码器抑制块状推演伪影。异构计算量缩放分析表明,公里级模拟所需每网格浮点运算量约为粗分辨率模型的10倍,符合对流尺度动态更高的信息密度。仅用17天数据训练,STRATA即可生成稳定的24小时全球推演,覆盖多样气候区的公里级动态,尽管随预报时长出现大尺度偏差。其能效达48模拟日/兆瓦时,较SCREAM物理模型提高约50倍;在512块H100 GPU下,可达741模拟日/实际日。代码与数据集已公开。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Kilometer-scale convection shapes precipitation extremes, tropical organization, and cloud feedbacks, but most global atmospheric models approximate these processes at 25-100 km resolution. Global storm-resolving physics models resolve convective systems explicitly, but at a cost -- roughly one MWh per simulated day on exascale supercomputers -- that limits long-duration simulation. We introduce STRATA (Storm-resolving Tile-based autoRegressive Atmosphere Transformer Architecture), the first autoregressive AI emulator for global storm-resolving atmospheric dynamics. STRATA is trained on the highest-resolution atmospheric dataset yet used for global AI emulation: 17 days of SCREAM physics-model output at 4.9-km resolution (~25 million grid cells) sampled every 10 minutes. Our central premise is that on 10-minute timescales atmospheric dynamics are predominantly local, so training on small spatial tiles trades scarce global temporal samples for abundant local spatial samples and enables global rollout via overlapping-tile blending. STRATA combines 3D patch embedding and local 3D neighborhood attention, a novel Stereographic Rotary Position Embedding (StereoRoPE) for grid-invariant encoding, and a pixel-space de-aliasing decoder that suppresses patch-scale rollout artifacts. An iso-FLOP scaling study reveals that km-scale emulation requires ~10x more FLOPs per grid point than coarse-resolution AI weather models, consistent with the higher information density of convective-scale dynamics. Trained on only 17 days of data, STRATA produces stable 24-hour global rollouts with realistic km-scale dynamics across diverse regimes, though large-scale biases develop with lead time. It achieves 48 simulation days per megawatt-hour -- about 50 times better energy efficiency than the SCREAM physics model -- and 741 simulated days per wall-clock day at 512 H100 GPUs. Code and dataset are publicly available.
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