arXiv:2606.31284cs.LGstat.ML2026-06

提出一种高效稀疏高斯过程分位数回归方法,自适应优化计算资源分配。

Sequential sparse Gaussian process quantile regression

论文配图:Sequential sparse Gaussian process quantile regression
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用诱导变量和拉普拉斯近似降低分位数回归计算成本。
  • 通过分解预测不确定性,实现更精准的输入填充与数据采集。
  • 适合需要高精度不确定性建模且算力有限的场景。

分位数回归旨在从观测数据中估计响应变量的条件分位数。在贝叶斯框架下,高斯过程分位数回归可提供不确定性量化,但因非共轭的偏斜拉普拉斯似然及后验推断开销大而面临显著计算挑战。本文构建了一种稀疏高斯过程框架,将分位数函数通过一组缩减的诱导变量表示,并采用拉普拉斯近似进行后验推断。进一步地,将预测不确定性分解为条件先验与后验诱导方差成分,据此驱动两种互补的自适应机制:诱导输入填充与数据采集。二者结合形成一种序列算法,将计算资源聚焦于主导的预测不确定性来源,并动态控制模型复杂度。基准问题上的数值实验表明,拉普拉斯近似具有高精度,基于方差的诱导输入布局优势明显,所提序列增强策略相较预定义数据采集策略更具有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Quantile regression aims to estimate the conditional quantiles of a response variable from observed data. In a Bayesian setting, Gaussian process quantile regression provides uncertainty quantification but faces significant computational challenges due to the nonconjugacy of the asymmetric Laplace likelihood and the cost of posterior inference. We develop a sparse Gaussian process framework in which the quantile function is represented through a reduced set of inducing variables and posterior inference is performed using a Laplace approximation. A decomposition of the predictive uncertainty into conditional-prior and posterior-induced variance components is then exploited to drive two complementary adaptive mechanisms: inducing-input infilling and data acquisition. These mechanisms are combined within a sequential algorithm that allocates computational effort toward the dominant source of predictive uncertainty and adaptively controls model complexity. Numerical experiments on benchmark problems demonstrate the accuracy of the Laplace approximation, the benefits of variance-based inducing-input placement, and the effectiveness of the proposed sequential enrichment strategy compared with predefined data-acquisition strategies.

分位数回归高斯过程稀疏化不确定性量化

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