发现城市减速行为的四种稳定模式，早期加速度是关键预测信号。
Urban Deceleration Behavior Modes Under Scene Context: An Early-Kinematic Classifier from Argoverse 2 Multi-Agent Trajectories
- 从19维运动特征中聚类出4种减速模式
- 首1秒内预测准确率达F1=0.758，场景信息提升0.059
- 车辆年龄是主要情境影响因素，低速时模式依赖性强
城市减速是跟车研究中被广泛探讨但分类混乱的行为。基于Argoverse 2 Sensor数据集的234段城市驾驶日志，我们提取了1,219个持续减速事件，将其编码为19维运动特征向量，通过带自助采样稳定性分析的K均值聚类发现行为模式，并量化11个场景变量的调节作用。使用梯度提升分类器，仅用事件前1.0秒数据即可预测模式归属。经50次重采样验证，四类稳定模式（前瞻性缓刹62.8%、反应性逼近30.6%、制动式突降4.8%、异常值1.8%）的调整兰德指数达0.897。仅有车辆对年龄效应中等（epsilon²=0.085），道路几何与弱势道路使用者接近度影响可忽略。早期分类器在1.0秒时达到宏平均F1=0.758，加入场景信息后提升0.059；中速行驶下模式具有稳态不变性（ARI=0.817），低速时则呈现强依赖性（ARI=0.166）。结果表明：城市减速由少数稳定运动模式构成，早期加速度变化是主导预测信号，车辆对年龄是核心情境调节因子。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Urban deceleration is one of the most empirically studied yet least taxonomically organized behaviors in car-following research. Recent perception-equipped autonomous-vehicle datasets enable trajectory-anchored mode discovery. We extract 1,219 sustained deceleration events from 234 urban driving logs of the Argoverse 2 Sensor dataset, encode each event in a 19-dimensional kinematic feature vector, discover behavioral modes via K-means clustering with bootstrap stability analysis, and quantify modulation by eleven scene-context variables. A HistGradientBoosting classifier predicts mode membership from the first 1.0 s of each event. Four stable modes emerge with a bootstrap Adjusted Rand Index of 0.897 across 50 resamples: anticipatory soft (62.8%), reactive closing (30.6%), brake-like jerk (4.8%), and an outlier category (1.8%). Only pair age shows a medium effect (epsilon^2 = 0.085); scene geometry and vulnerable-road-user proximity show negligible effects. The early-event classifier achieves macro-F1 = 0.758 at 1.0 s, with scene context contributing +0.059 F1 over kinematics alone. Modes are regime-invariant in medium-speed driving (ARI = 0.817) but regime-dependent at low speed (ARI = 0.166). A small set of stable kinematic modes structures urban deceleration; early-window jerk dominates predictive signal; and pair age is the primary contextual modulator.
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