用多模型筛选合成数据,提升小样本生存分析效果
A Filtered Mixture-of-Generators for Fully Synthetic Survival Training

- 从多个生成器中筛选样本,用真实数据训练的模型评分来选可信合成数据
- 在16个公开数据集上平均提升C-index 2.17、IBS 0.67,多数数据集表现优于真实数据训练
- 适合隐私受限的临床研究,既能保护数据又可替代真实数据训练
生存分析需处理时间至事件数据,但临床数据成本高且稀缺:事件需多年随访积累,队列规模小,隐私法规限制机构间共享。表格生成模型可扩充数据并实现隐私保护共享,但自身也需大量数据——在典型的小样本生存分析队列中,单一生成器难以充分表征人群,导致下游模型性能无法匹配真实数据。本研究提出FoGS(基于过滤的生成器混合模型),将合成数据构建重构为样本选择而非生成。从四个架构不同的表格生成器中抽取候选样本池,每个样本由七个在真实数据上训练的生存模型组成的集成模型,利用正规评分规则作为单样本合理性代理进行打分。采用两级管道:外层优化选择策略(生成器配额、评分权重、随机补充、事件时间与删失的分层平衡),以保留的下游性能为目标;内层调优下游模型(XGBoost-Cox)。在16个公开数据集上,采用‘仅用合成数据训练、真实数据测试’设置(使用C-index和IBS,0-100尺度),FoGS平均提升C-index 2.17,IBS 0.67,两个指标均在9个数据集上改善,至少一个指标改善的达13个(单边Wilcoxon检验p=0.039和0.035)。多数队列上达到或超过真实数据训练表现,且与未过滤采样相比,最近邻隐私边界无显著变化。因此,在隐私受限的临床场景中,对异构生成器池进行样本过滤是一种可行的替代真实数据训练的方法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Survival analysis models time-to-event data, but in clinical settings training data are costly and scarce: events accrue over years of follow-up, cohorts are small, and privacy regulations restrict sharing across institutions. Tabular generative models promise augmentation and privacy-preserving cohort sharing, yet are themselves data-hungry -- on the small cohorts typical of survival analysis, a single generator rarely characterizes the population well enough for downstream models trained on its output to match real-data performance. FoGS (Filtered Mixture-of-Generators for Survival analysis) reframes synthetic-data construction as sample selection rather than generation. A candidate pool is drawn from four architecturally distinct tabular generators, and each sample is scored by an ensemble of seven survival models trained on real data, using proper scoring rules as a per-sample plausibility proxy. A two-level pipeline optimizes, in its outer loop, a selection policy -- generator quotas, scorer weights, a random complement, and stratified balancing on event time and censoring -- against held-out downstream performance, while an inner loop tunes the downstream model (XGBoost-Cox). On 16 public datasets under train-on-synthetic, test-on-real (C-index and IBS, $0$--$100$ scale), FoGS yields mean improvements of $+2.17$ in C-index and $+0.67$ in IBS, improving both metrics on 9 of 16 datasets and at least one on 13 (one-sided Wilcoxon $p=0.039$ and $p=0.035$). It matches or exceeds real-data training on most cohorts, with no significant change in nearest-neighbour privacy margin relative to unfiltered sampling. Sample filtering over a heterogeneous generator pool is thus a viable substitute for real-data training in privacy-restricted clinical settings.
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