arXiv:2607.00154cs.LGcs.AI2026-07

用进化算法自动搜索时间序列预测的最优Transformer结构。

EVOTS: Evolutionary Transformer Search for Time Series Forecasting

论文配图:EVOTS: Evolutionary Transformer Search for Time Series Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过模块化基因编码实现灵活的注意力与前馈结构组合。
  • 在四个ETT数据集上,多变量预测误差优于或持平强基线模型。
  • 适合需要定制化时序模型的工业场景与研究者使用。

多变量时间序列预测的神经架构设计仍缺乏探索,现有方法多依赖固定Transformer结构,而实际任务差异显著。本文提出针对时序预测的进化神经架构搜索框架EVOTS,采用模块化基因表示灵活组合注意力、前馈和投影组件,并引入修复机制保证结构有效性。该方法无需人工设计规则即可高效探索多样化的架构空间。在四个来自ETT系列的数据集(ETTh1、ETTh2、ETTm1、ETTm2)上,评估了单变量到单变量、多变量到单变量、多变量到多变量等不同预测设置,预测时长涵盖96、192、336和720。在多变量到多变量设置中,所发现架构在均方误差上达到竞争力甚至更优表现,超越强基线模型。额外分析揭示了不同预测场景下的性能差异,并报告了训练耗时,粗略反映计算成本。结果表明,进化搜索可在合理时间内有效发现灵活且高性能的类Transformer架构,适用于多变量时间序列预测。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Evolutionary neural architecture design for multivariate time-series forecasting remains underexplored, with most approaches relying on fixed Transformer architectures despite substantial variation across tasks and forecasting settings. This paper introduces an evolutionary neural architecture search framework for discovering task-adaptive Transformer-like models for time-series forecasting (EVOTS). Architectures are encoded using a modular genome representation that enables flexible composition of attention, feed-forward, and projection components, while a repair mechanism enforces structural validity throughout the evolutionary process. This formulation allows effective exploration of a diverse architecture space without relying on hand-crafted design rules. The proposed approach is evaluated on four benchmark datasets from the ETT family (ETTh1, ETTh2, ETTm1, and ETTm2) under multiple forecasting settings, including univariate-to-univariate, multivariate-to-univariate, and multivariate-to-multivariate prediction, with horizons of 96, 192, 336, and 720. In the multivariate-to-multivariate setting, the evolved architectures achieve competitive and, in several cases, improved mean squared error relative to a strong Transformer-based baseline. Additional analyses examine performance differences across forecasting settings and report wall-clock training time to provide a coarse indication of computational cost. Overall, the results demonstrate that evolutionary search can effectively discover flexible and high-performing Transformer-like architectures for multivariate time-series forecasting within practical runtime constraints.

时间序列进化搜索Transformer架构搜索

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