用双状态循环结构提升长序列预测精度,有效捕捉趋势与局部误差变化。
StateFlow: Dual-State Recurrent Modeling for Long-Horizon Time Series Forecasting

- 设计双轨迹循环框架,分别追踪全局趋势和局部误差变化。
- 在多个标准数据集上超越主流模型,实现高精度多步预测。
- 适合需要稳定长期预测的金融、气象等场景使用。
长时序多变量时间序列预测(LTSF)因非平稳性、模式突变和误差累积仍具挑战。现有可变性感知递归神经网络(VARNN)通过一步预测误差驱动的残差记忆状态追踪变化,但仅适用于一步回归,不支持多步预测。本文将VARNN扩展至长时序预测,提出StateFlow框架:以VARNN为双状态循环主干,从历史序列中提取两种互补信号——隐藏状态轨迹反映趋势、季节性、水平变化及周期模式等主要动态;残差记忆轨迹则由一步基线预测与真实值间误差经非线性递归变换生成,表征结构化局部偏差。采用分块解码器分别汇总两类轨迹,并直接映射至未来时段完成多步预测。进一步采用两阶段优化策略:先以一步预测目标训练编码器优化历史表示,再针对具体预测时域训练解码器。在标准LTSF基准测试中,StateFlow表现优于强线性、递归、卷积及Transformer基线模型,同时保持线性递归编码与紧凑结构。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Long-horizon multivariate time series forecasting (LTSF) remains challenging due to non-stationarity, regime shifts, and error accumulation. The Variability-Aware Recursive Neural Network (VARNN) is designed to track such variability by maintaining a residual-memory state driven by one-step prediction errors. However, its original formulation is limited to one-step sequence regression and does not directly support multi-step forecasting. In this work, we extend VARNN to long-horizon forecasting and introduce StateFlow, a recurrent forecasting framework that uses VARNN as a dual-state recurrent backbone to capture two complementary signals from the lookback sequence: a hidden-state trajectory representing primary temporal dynamics, including trend, seasonality, level changes, and recurring patterns, and a residual-memory trajectory representing structured local prediction deviations, driven from a nonlinear recurrent transformation of errors between one-step base predictions and observed values. A chunk-based decoder separately summarizes these trajectories and maps them to the future horizon for direct multi-step forecasting. We further employ a two-stage optimization strategy that first trains the VARNN encoder through a one-step base prediction objective to optimize the internal representations over the lookback sequence, and then trains a horizon-specific decoder for direct multi-step forecasting. Experiments on standard LTSF benchmarks show that StateFlow achieves competitive performance against strong linear, recurrent, convolutional, and Transformer-based baselines while preserving linear recurrent encoding and a compact model design.
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