arXiv:2607.01610cs.AI2026-07

用利润最大化替代目标值,让产品改进建议更符合商业实际

Profit-Based Counterfactual Explanations for Product Improvement: A Case Study of Manga Sales in Japan

  • 将反事实解释转化为利润最大化问题,无需预设目标值
  • 把属性修改成本作为距离项,经济含义清晰
  • 适合营销决策、产品优化等实际业务场景

反事实解释(CE)广泛用于提升机器学习模型的可解释性,并支持基于模型预测的数据驱动决策。然而,现有方法通常需要两个外部指定输入:期望输出值(目标)和量化解释变量变化的距离函数。在回归场景中,目标设定的有效性以及距离度量的实际解释尚未得到充分解决。此外,大多数现有方法关注的是改变预测结果,而非优化决策目标,而现实决策往往需要明确的目标最大化。为解决这些局限,本文在管理与营销背景下将反事实解释建模为利润最大化问题,提出利润基础的反事实解释(PBCE)框架。该框架通过直接以利润最大化为核心优化目标,消除了对外部目标设定的需求;同时,将距离项重新解释为修改产品属性的成本,提供了清晰且具有经济学基础的解释。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Counterfactual explanation (CE) is widely used to enhance the interpretability of machine learning models and support data-driven decision-making based on model predictions. However, existing CE methods typically require two exogenously specified inputs: a desired output value (target) and a distance function that quantifies changes in explanatory variables. In regression settings, neither the validity of target specification nor the practical interpretation of the distance metric has been sufficiently addressed. Furthermore, most existing CE methods focus on altering predictions rather than optimizing a decision objective, even though real-world decision-making often requires explicit objective maximization. To address these limitations, we formulate CE as a profit maximization problem in management and marketing contexts and propose a framework termed profit-based counterfactual explanation (PBCE). PBCE eliminates the need for exogenous target specification by directly maximizing profit as the primary optimization objective. Concurrently, the distance term is reinterpreted as the cost of modifying product attributes, providing a clear and economically grounded interpretation.

反事实解释利润最大化产品优化

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