arXiv:2607.01661cs.AI2026-07

让多个AI各自掌握不同信息,通过讨论提升预测准确性。

Diverse Evidence, Better Forecasts: Multi-Agent Deliberation Under Information Asymmetry

论文配图:Diverse Evidence, Better Forecasts: Multi-Agent Deliberation Under Information Asymmetry
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 给每个AI分配独特信息,强制通过对话交换知识。
  • 在真实预测市场数据上,准确率提升4-8个百分点。
  • 适合需要高质量决策的场景,如金融、政策预判。

多智能体系统在预测未来事件中日益重要,因多个大模型间的讨论被认为能提升推理与校准能力。然而现有方法忽视一个关键设计:各智能体接收的信息。当所有智能体获得相同证据时,讨论会退化为群体盲从,使多智能体系统几乎等同于单个智能体。本文识别出这一根本缺陷,提出设计性信息不对称:将证据划分为共享公共部分与独占私有部分,使每个智能体拥有他人无法直接获取的知识,只能通过讨论传递。理论证明该分解可降低智能体间误差相关性,并构建了InfoDelphi框架,包含相关性感知证据路由、基于理由的迭代讨论和置信度加权聚合。在包含375个二元预测问题的PolyGym基准测试中,InfoDelphi相比最强单智能体与多智能体基线,在Brier得分上提升12%-18%,准确率提升4%-8%。更详细实验表明,移除信息不对称会导致讨论收益几乎消失,证实输入多样性是有效多智能体推理的关键驱动力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Multi-agent systems are increasingly used for forecasting future events, as deliberation among multiple LLMs is believed to improve reasoning and calibration. Yet existing approaches overlook a critical design choice: what information each agent receives. When all agents are given identical evidence, deliberation collapses into herding rather than genuine belief revision, leaving multi-agent systems little better than a single agent. We identify this as a fundamental gap and propose designed information asymmetry to close it: by partitioning evidence into shared public and disjoint private subsets, each agent holds exclusive knowledge that can only reach others through deliberation. We theoretically show that this decomposition reduces inter-agent error correlation, and instantiate it in InfoDelphi, a framework combining relevance-aware evidence routing, rationale-based iterative deliberation, and confidence-weighted aggregation. On PolyGym, a benchmark of 375 binary forecasting questions derived from real-world prediction markets, InfoDelphi outperforms the strongest single-agent and multi-agent baselines by 12--18% in Brier score and 4--8 percentage points in accuracy. More detailed experiments confirm that removing information asymmetry eliminates most deliberation gains, establishing diversity of input as the key enabler of effective multi-agent reasoning.

多智能体预测系统信息不对称推理优化

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