统一风电预测新模型,融合物理规律与运行状态,提升准确性与泛化能力。
UniWind: Toward Unified Day-Ahead Wind Power Forecasting via Physics-Informed State Routing

- 引入物理先验估计器,结合站点特性与共享功率曲线构建先验。
- 通过状态感知修正器实现跨风场零样本预测,准确率显著优于现有方法。
- 适合电力系统调度人员及风电预测研究者使用,尤其关注跨场泛化场景。
日前风电预测对经济高效的电力系统运行至关重要,主要依赖未来气象条件并保留发电的时间依赖性。实际观测中,风电功率常混合了可用物理功率、局部环境影响及隐含运行状态(如停机、限电)。现有物理模型在不同风场适应性差,数据驱动模型则易混淆气象因素与状态偏差。本文提出UniWind,一种基于物理状态路由的统一预测模型。首先,通过站点适配的单调扭曲与共享物理功率曲线构建站点校准的物理先验;再施加物理上限约束,形成可用功率的软包络。随后,设计隐式状态编码器建模运行状态嵌入,并通过知识引导的状态路由与有界、状态特异的专家修正,将先验转化为最终预测。在20余个真实数据集上的全量与跨场零样本实验表明,UniWind具有高精度与强鲁棒性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Day-ahead wind power forecasting is essential for cost-effective power-system operation. It is primarily driven by future meteorological conditions while retaining temporal dependencies in power generation. In practice, observed wind-farm power often entangles physically available power with local environmental effects and latent operational states, such as shutdowns and curtailment. Existing physical models provide useful constraints but adapt poorly across wind farms, whereas data-driven models can capture rich correlations but often conflate meteorological effects with state-induced deviations. In this study, we propose UniWind, a wind power forecasting model based on physics-informed state routing. UniWind first employs a Physical Prior Estimator to construct a site-calibrated physical prior by combining site-conditioned monotonic warping with a shared physical power curve. It further applies a physical upper-bound constraint to shape this prior as a soft envelope of available wind power generation. UniWind then proposes a Latent State Encoder to model operating-state embeddings and transforms the physical prior into final power forecasts through a State-aware Power Corrector, which uses knowledge-guided supervised state routing and bounded, state-specific expert correction. Full-shot and cross-farm zero-shot experiments on more than 20 real-world datasets demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of UniWind.
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