用液体神经网络建模发动机退化,让预测结果更可解释。
Liquid Latent State Dynamics for Interpretable Turbofan Degradation Modeling

- 将退化与工况分离,用液态状态演化建模健康变化。
- 在多工况数据集上预测误差降低至0.2266,优于基线的0.2438。
- 退化状态轨迹清晰,适合故障机理分析与可解释性研究。
面向航空发动机健康监测的多变量时序预测模型常以点预测精度为评价标准,但其内部状态难以揭示连贯的退化过程。本文在C-MAPSS基准上,研究液态神经网络作为潜在动态模型的应用。所提模型将历史窗口编码为潜空间状态,通过液态转移模型演化该状态,并解码未来传感器读数。为分离健康演化与运行条件变化,潜状态被分解为退化与工况两部分。剩余寿命、单调风险及潜一致性损失监督退化成分,而工况预测与去相关损失抑制运行条件信息泄露。在FD001–FD004上,完整解耦模型将整体传感器预测均方根误差从GRU基线的0.2438降至0.2266,尤其在多工况子集FD002和FD004上提升显著。学习到的退化状态形成更清晰的时间退化轴,平均状态速度斯皮尔曼相关系数达0.5960。直接剩余寿命回归仍优于本模型,表明当前方法更适合作为可解释的退化动力学世界模型,而非校准的寿命回归器。结果表明,液态潜动态模型能弥合预测性维护与可检视健康建模之间的鸿沟。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Multivariate time-series models for prognostics are often evaluated by point prediction accuracy, yet their internal states rarely expose a coherent degradation process. We study liquid neural networks as latent dynamics models for aircraft engine health monitoring on the C-MAPSS benchmark. The proposed model encodes a history window into a latent state, evolves that state with a liquid transition model, and decodes future sensor observations. To separate health evolution from operating-condition variation, the latent state is factorized into degradation and condition components. Remaining useful life, monotonic risk, and latent-consistency losses supervise the degradation component, while condition prediction and decorrelation losses discourage operating-condition leakage. Across FD001--FD004, the full disentangled model improves overall sensor forecasting RMSE from 0.2438 for a GRU baseline to 0.2266, with the largest gains on the multi-condition subsets FD002 and FD004. The learned degradation state also forms a clearer temporal degradation axis, reaching an average state-speed Spearman correlation of 0.5960. Direct remaining-useful-life regression remains stronger for the GRU baseline, indicating that the proposed representation is currently more effective as an interpretable world model for degradation dynamics than as a calibrated lifetime regressor. These results suggest that liquid latent dynamics can bridge predictive maintenance forecasting and inspectable health-state modeling.
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