arXiv:2607.02632cs.LGcs.AI2026-07

用联邦Mamba模型实现高维时序预测,兼顾隐私与精度。

QuantFlow: A Federated Mamba-Based Post-Transformer Foundation Model for Time-Series Forecasting

  • 基于反向序列嵌入和双向Mamba解码器,处理长时序数据
  • 在ETTm1和Weather数据集上误差低于0.3,三轮通信后仍有效
  • 适合金融、能源等需隐私保护的场景,尤其关注不确定性建模

时序预测支持金融、能源、交通、公共卫生和工业监控中的决策。现有基础模型虽提升任务迁移能力,但多依赖集中式数据和Transformer注意力机制,难以应用于长时序、高维度且隐私敏感的数据。本文提出QuantFlow,一种结合反向序列嵌入、双向Mamba状态空间解码器、分位数回归与联邦学习的概率预测框架。每个变量在完整观测窗口内嵌入,正反方向处理后映射至五个条件分位数。TSMixup通过狄利克雷加权插值扩展时间多样性,同时保持序列结构。实验涵盖加密货币、交通、电力、电力变压器温度、流感和天气数据。QuantFlow在ETTm1上均方误差为0.2834,在Weather上为0.2218;20个客户端非独立同分布部署下,三轮通信后仍保持有用精度,无需集中原始记录。结果表明,选择性状态空间建模是可扩展、不确定性感知、隐私友好的时序预测的有前途基础,但也揭示了在不规则流行病信号和长周期泛化方面的局限。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time-series forecasting supports decisions in finance, en-ergy, transportation, public health, and industrial monitoring. Recent foundation models improve transfer across forecast-ing tasks, but many depend on centralized data and Trans-former attention, which restricts their use for long, high-di-mensional, and privacy-sensitive signals. This paper presents QuantFlow, a probabilistic forecasting framework that com-bines inverted sequence embedding, bidirectional Mamba state-space decoders, quantile regression, and federated learning. Each variable is embedded over the complete ob-servation window, processed in forward and reverse direc-tions, and projected to five conditional quantiles. TSMixup expands temporal diversity through Dirichlet-weighted inter-polation while preserving sequence structure. Experiments cover cryptocurrency, traffic, electricity, Electricity Trans-former Temperature, influenza, and weather data. QuantFlow obtains mean squared errors of 0.2834 on ETTm1 and 0.2218 on Weather, and a 20-client non-IID deployment retains use-ful accuracy after three communication rounds without cen-tralizing raw records. The results indicate that selective state-space modelling is a promising basis for scalable, uncer-tainty-aware, and privacy-conscious time-series prediction, while also revealing limitations on irregular epidemiological signals and long-horizon generalization.

时序预测联邦学习Mamba分位数回归

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