arXiv:2607.02938cs.LG2026-07

将缺失数据视为信号,提升重症监护预测准确率

Missingness as Signal: Channel-Independent Spectrogram Learning for Clinical Time Series Prediction

论文配图:Missingness as Signal: Channel-Independent Spectrogram Learning for Clinical Time Series Prediction
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 为每个生理变量生成独立时频谱图,保留变量身份
  • 在MIMIC-IV上实现0.7225的平均AUROC,优于各类基线
  • 显式建模缺失模式,适合临床时间序列预测研究者

重症监护中临床时间序列预测因生理变量异质性和信息性缺失而困难。测量的有无反映临床决策与患者严重程度,缺失本身可作为预测信号而非单纯数据缺陷。本文提出CISM框架,将每个临床变量转换为独立的时频谱图,通过变量对齐编码保留变量身份,并将显式缺失流与谱图表示对齐。在MIMIC-IV的院内死亡预测任务中,CISM在所有对比的时间序列、缺失感知、视觉及时频基线中达到最高均值AUROC(0.7225)、AUPRC(0.3308)和F1(0.3808)。消融实验表明观测模式提供有意义的信息信号;像素级掩码注入优于原始谱图输入,并恢复大量预测价值。对齐的缺失流在AUROC和AUPRC上带来进一步互补增益。结果强调了在临床时间序列预测中将观测模式建模为结构化信号的重要性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Clinical time series prediction in intensive care units remains challenging due to heterogeneous physiological variables and informative missingness. The presence or absence of a measurement can reflect clinical decisions and patient severity, and thus missingness can serve as a predictive signal rather than a simple data artifact. This work presents CISM, a Channel-Independent Spectrogram framework with a Missingness stream for clinical multivariate time series prediction. CISM converts each clinical variable into a variable-wise time-frequency spectrogram, preserves variable identity through variable-aligned encoding, and aligns an explicit missingness stream with the spectrogram representation. Experiments on an in-hospital mortality task derived from MIMIC-IV show that CISM achieves the highest mean AUROC (0.7225), AUPRC (0.3308), and F1 (0.3808) among the compared time series, missingness-aware, vision, and time-frequency baselines. Ablation studies further show that observation patterns provide a meaningful informative signal. Pixel-level mask injection improves performance over plain spectrogram inputs and recovers much of this predictive value. The aligned missingness stream contributes a further, complementary gain in both AUROC and AUPRC. These results highlight the importance of modeling observation patterns as structured signals in clinical time series prediction.

临床预测缺失数据时频分析重症监护

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