arXiv:2607.03176cs.LG2026-07

用逆强化学习分析家庭用电行为,揭示气候与经济冲击下的差异化响应。

Understanding electricity consumption behaviour through Inverse Reinforcement Learning

论文配图:Understanding electricity consumption behaviour through Inverse Reinforcement Learning
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将家庭视为智能体,通过逆强化学习推断其用电奖励函数。
  • 发现2021至2023年夏季不同群体的制冷行为出现短期调整、长期转变和无变化三类响应。
  • 强调时间使用差异是行为异质性的关键维度,政策需考虑消费时机与持久性。

理解家庭在社会经济与气候因素驱动下的用电行为,对决策者制定能源政策至关重要。消费者对热应力的反应因收入、消费习惯和建筑环境而异,这种非线性行为常被现有方法简化。本研究将家庭视为与复杂环境互动的智能体,采用逆强化学习(Inverse Reinforcement Learning)将其用电行为建模为隐含的奖励函数。具体分析了意大利不同用电模式聚类在社会经济与气候冲击下的奖励函数变化。结果表明,2021至2023年夏季,能源危机与热浪导致不同消费群体的制冷行为发生异质性重塑,响应方向取决于既有习惯与居住环境。观察到三类反应:随冲击缓解而消失的短期调整、持续至2023年的长期转变,以及几乎无变化的群体。在日内尺度上,即使社会经济与环境背景相似,消费时间不同的群体也表现出显著差异,揭示时间使用是行为异质性的独立维度。因此,能源政策与需求响应方案应不仅考虑用户特征与地理位置,还需关注消费时段及冲击响应的持久性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Understanding how households consume electricity in response to socioeconomic and climatic drivers is important for decision-makers designing energy policies in a changing climate and under geopolitical tensions. Consumers respond differently to thermal stress depending on income, consumption habits and the surrounding built environment, a nonlinear behaviour that most approaches oversimplify. In this study, households are treated as agents interacting with complex environments, and Inverse Reinforcement Learning is used to represent their consumption behaviour as model implied reward functions. Specifically, we observe how these reward functions change when households undergo socioeconomic and climatic shocks. The framework is tested on different clusters of electricity consumption profiles in Italy. Clusters' reward functions are retrieved and used to understand how cooling behaviour changes from summer 2021 to summer 2022 and 2023, before, during and after the energy crisis and a heatwave. We find that these shocks reshaped cooling behaviour heterogeneously across consumer groups, in directions conditioned by their prior habits and built environment. Across the 2021 to 2023 summers, we identify a spectrum of responses: transient adjustments that receded as the shocks eased, durable shifts persisting into 2023, and consumers exhibiting negligible change. At the intradaily scale, groups comparable in socioeconomic and environmental context but differing in their daily timing of consumption responded distinctly, identifying time of use as a separate dimension of behavioural heterogeneity. Energy policies and demand-response schemes should therefore account not only for who consumers are and where they live, but for when they consume and whether their response to a shock persists.

行为建模逆强化学习用电行为政策设计

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