arXiv:2607.03279cs.LG2026-07

用预训练全球气象模型实现高效区域天气精细化,成本低且更准。

From Global to Local: Efficient Regional Weather Downscaling with Global Weather Foundation Model

论文配图:From Global to Local: Efficient Regional Weather Downscaling with Global Weather Foundation Model
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 在全局模型潜空间添加轻量级多尺度头,实现区域精细化预测。
  • 分辨率提升100倍,计算成本仅为传统方法的一小部分,精度更高。
  • 适合气象研究者、气候建模与灾害预警领域使用。

高精度区域天气预报需同时捕捉细粒度结构并保持与全球动力一致。传统有限区域模型计算开销大,多数学习方法将其视为超分辨率问题,忽视跨尺度统计与物理不匹配。我们提出一种基于基础模型的降尺度框架,通过在预训练气象模型主干上增加轻量级多尺度预测头,在其潜在空间直接进行区域精细化。尽管训练时输入分辨率显著粗化,该主干仍支持对应于网格分辨率提升两个数量级的区域适应,无需重新训练。该方法以区域数值模拟为训练目标,并在格点数据与地面气象站观测上评估,可分析全球再分析、区域模拟与实测站点间的系统性偏差。实验表明,在多数指标上优于传统数值天气预报(NWP),且计算成本大幅降低。此外,基于全局预训练气象基础模型的潜空间构建,性能优于标准图像超分辨率方法。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate regional weather prediction requires resolving fine-scale structure while remaining consistent with global dynamics. Traditional limited area models rely on computationally expensive simulations, while many learning-based approaches frame the problem as super-resolution, overlooking statistical and physical mismatches across scales. We propose a foundation-model-driven downscaling framework that learns regional refinements of global forecasts by augmenting a pretrained weather model backbone with lightweight, multi-scale prediction heads operating directly in its latent space. Despite being trained on substantially coarser inputs, the pretrained backbone supports regional adaptation at resolutions corresponding to a two-order-of-magnitude increase in grid-cell resolution, without the need for retraining. The proposed approach uses regional numerical simulations as training targets and is evaluated not only against gridded datasets but also against ground-based weather station observations, enabling analysis of systematic biases between global reanalysis, regional simulations, and in-situ weather station observations. Our experiments show improved accuracy in comparison to NWP on most of the metrics at the fraction of computational cost. Moreover, we observe that building on a latent space of globally pre-trained weather foundation model offers better downscaling capabilities than the standard image-based super-resolution approaches.

天气预报降尺度基础模型气象

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。