小样本下,基础模型比传统方法更准,但标签多时传统模型反超。
When Does Small Data Work? Accuracy and Efficiency Trade-offs Between Tabular Foundation Models and Conventional Methods for Crowd-State Classification at Hajj and Umrah

- 用少量标签直接预测,避免任务微调
- 标签极少时基础模型准确率更高,标签增多后传统模型超越
- 适合标签稀缺且算力有限的场景,如朝觐人群状态识别
在标签成本高的领域(如朝觐与副朝期间的人群监测),从极少量标注样本中学习是核心挑战。本文测试了表格式基础模型在人群状态分类任务中的表现,评估其在标签稀缺条件下的价值,并与传统机器学习方法对比,分析准确率与效率的权衡。基于三个真实数据集,评估了不同模型(未调参与调参形式)与三种基础模型。结果表明:无单一最优方法,选择取决于标签预算。标签极少时,基础模型表现更优;标签增加后,调参后的传统模型显著超越基础模型,尤其在结构化几何目标上。效率方面,传统模型需大量调参开销,而基础模型无需此步骤,尽管每次预测需重处理上下文。研究总结出一张实用决策图,指导在特定标签与计算预算下选择合适方法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Learning from few labeled examples is a central challenge in tabular machine learning, and it becomes the binding constraint in domains where labeling is costly, such as crowd monitoring during Hajj and Umrah. Tabular foundation models, which predict from only a handful of examples without task-specific training, were recently introduced to address this very-few-label regime. In this study we test them on crowd-state classification to assess how much they help when labels are scarce, and we compare them against standard machine learning methods to characterize the accuracy and efficiency trade-offs between the two approaches. Using three real datasets we evaluate different machine learning models, in untuned and tuned forms, against three foundation models. Results show that no single family is best everywhere. The right choice depends on the label budget. When labels are very few, foundation models lead. As labels grow, tuned conventional models catch up and significantly surpass the foundation models on the more structural geometry target. Efficiency separates them further where tuned machine learning models incur a large tuning cost that foundation models avoid, although foundation models reprocess their context at every prediction. We summarize these results as a practical map of which approach to prefer under a given label budget and computational budget.
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